The papal conclave is set to begin on May 7th - who are the three candidates with the best chance of becoming the next Pope?
Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, the Catholic Church stands at a crucial crossroads.
With the papal conclave set to begin on May 7, 135 cardinal-electors will gather in the Sistine Chapel to choose his successor.
This historic moment comes amid a global shift in Catholic demographics and debate over the future direction of the Church.
Pope Francis’ legacy of compassion and reform has left a lasting imprint, and the choice of the next Pontiff will reflect whether the cardinals opt for continuity or a more conservative course in response to growing internal and external pressures.
The process to choose Pope Francis’ successor will see the 135 cardinals enter a secretive Vatican conclave.
Cardinals cannot leave the Vatican until a new Pope is chosen, and stay in Casa Santa Marta, voting in the Sistine Chapel, cut off from phones, internet, and news.
Voting begins with one ballot on day one, then two each day until someone receives a two-thirds majority.
Conclaves can be lengthy—the longest lasted nearly three years—but recent ones, like the election of Pope Francis, have concluded in just two days.
The the frontrunners with the bookmakers are currently Pietro Parolin, Luis Antonio Tagle and Peter Turkson, let's take a look at the probability of each of them being selected.
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| Next Pope | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 9/4 | 31% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 7/2 | 22% |
| Peter Turkson | 5/1 | 17% |
| Matteo Zuppi | 7/1 | 13% |
Who are the favourites for the next Pope?
The favourite to be the next Pope is Cardinal Pietro Parolin at a best price of 9/4 with Sky Bet .
He is the Vatican’s Secretary of State, effectively the “prime minister” and Francis’ principal adviser since 2014.
Many view him as a leading candidate to become the next pope thanks to his deep diplomatic experience and strong presence within the Roman Curia (the Church's central administration).
An influential figure in global Church affairs, Parolin has played a key role in navigating complex global issues, including Vatican-China relations and Ukraine.
He is considered a steady, pragmatic leader who understands the inner workings of the Vatican better than most.
If elected, a Parolin papacy would likely focus on strengthening the Church’s international relationships while continuing Francis’ reformist policies which could position him as a safe choice.
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Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines is second favourite at a best price of 7/2 with bet365, is widely seen as a candidate who could bring a global appeal and an inclusive perspective to the papacy.
Tagle, 67, aligns closely with Francis’ vision of a more inclusive Church, having advocated for a softer approach toward marginalised groups.
Formerly Archbishop of Manila and now serving in a key Vatican role overseeing evangelisation, Tagle is beloved for his warmth and communication skills.
His deep connection with the Church in Asia and the developing world could mark a significant shift from recent European popes.
A Tagle papacy would likely emphasize social justice, humility, and outreach to marginalized communities.
He has even been dubbed the “Asian Francis” for his progressive views and dedication to social issues.
Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana is one of the most prominent African figures in the Catholic Church and a respected voice on global social justice.
Known for his strong advocacy on climate change, economic inequality, and peacebuilding, Turkson has held influential roles within the Vatican, including as Prefect of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development.
He is a 5/1 chance (best odds on Ladbrokes) to become the first African Pope in 1,500 years.
