The cardinals are preparing to choose the next leader of the Catholic Church - what is the likeliest outcome?
Wednesday 7th May 2025 will mark the start of a new era as 133 cardinals prepare to choose a pope to guide the new course of the Catholic Church.
For the first time in history, fewer than half of those given a vote will be European and one of the next Pope market leaders could become the first African pope for 1,500 years.
The cardinals cannot leave the Vatican until the process is completed (a two-third majority is needed); staying in Casa Santa Marta, they will have no contact with the outside world until a new Pope is elected.
Conclaves can be lengthy — the longest lasted nearly three years — but recent ones, like the election of Pope Francis, have concluded in just two days.
A day before the papal conclave begins in the Sistine Chapel, Vatican City, Pope Francis' number two, Pietro Parolin, remains strong in the betting.
Who are his biggest challengers according to the next Pope odds?
Next Pope Betting Odds
| Next Pope | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 11/4 | 27% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 7/2 | 22% |
| Peter Turkson | 7/1 | 13% |
| Matteo Zuppi | 7/1 | 13% |
Who is the favourite to replace the Pope?
The bookmakers' favourite to be the next Pope is Pietro Parolin at a best price of 11/4 with Boylesports (implied 27% chance).
He is the Vatican’s Secretary of State, effectively the “prime minister” and served as Francis’ principal adviser since 2014.
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Many view Parolin as the leading candidate thanks to his deep diplomatic experience and strong presence within the Roman Curia (the Church's central administration).
An influential figure in global Church affairs, Parolin has played a key role in navigating complex global issues, including Vatican-China relations and Ukraine.
He is considered a steady, pragmatic leader who understands the inner workings of the Vatican better than most. If elected, a Parolin papacy would likely focus on strengthening the Church’s international relationships while continuing Francis’ reformist policies which could position him as a safe choice.
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Philippine cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is the 7/2 second favourite, seen as a candidate who could bring a global appeal and an inclusive perspective to the papacy.
Tagle, 67, aligns closely with Francis’ vision of a more inclusive Church, having advocated for a softer approach toward marginalised groups.
Formerly Archbishop of Manila and now serving in a key Vatican role overseeing evangelisation, Tagle is beloved for his warmth and communication skills.
His deep connection with the Church in Asia and the developing world could mark a significant shift from recent European popes.
A Tagle papacy would likely emphasize social justice, humility, and outreach to marginalized communities.
He has even been dubbed the “Asian Francis” for his progressive views and dedication to social issues.
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Meanwhile, at 7/1 is Ghana's Peter Turkson, one of the most prominent African figures in the Catholic Church and a respected voice on global social justice.
Known for his strong advocacy on climate change, economic inequality and peacebuilding, Turkson has held influential roles within the Vatican, including as Prefect of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development.
He is 13% likely to become the first African Pope in 1,500 years.
