The two frontrunners remain in the next pope odds market but a long-shot candidate is starting to attract significant attention from online bettors.
133 cardinals from across the world are gathered in the Vatican to begin the process of electing a new pontiff following the death of Pope Francis.
Once the cardinals have entered the Sistine Chapel at 16:30 BST (17:30 local time), they will have no contact with the outside world until a new Pope is elected.
For the first time in history, fewer than half of those given a vote will be European and one of the leaders in the next Pope market could become the first African pope for 1,500 years.
After the first vote later today, all eyes will be on the smoke emerging from the chapel chimney - if it's black there will be more voting tomorrow, white means the cardinals have reached a two-thirds majority and we have a new pope.
Conclaves can be lengthy — the longest lasted nearly three years — but recent ones, like the election of Pope Francis, have concluded in just two days.
Almost 300,000 users have checked the latest odds in the Next Pope betting market on oddschecker since it launched last month. During that time, Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle have consistently led the betting. Let's check on the latest odds.
Next Pope Betting Odds
| Next Pope | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 5/2 | 29% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 7/2 | 22% |
| Matteo Zuppi | 7/1 | 13% |
| Peter Turkson | 15/2 | 12% |
Who is the favourite to replace the Pope?
The bookmakers' favourite to be the next Pope is Pietro Parolin at a best price of 5/2 with Betfred (implied 29% chance).
He is the Vatican’s Secretary of State, effectively the “prime minister” and served as Francis’ principal adviser since 2014.
Many view Parolin as the leading candidate thanks to his deep diplomatic experience and strong presence within the Roman Curia (the Church's central administration).
An influential figure in global Church affairs, Parolin has played a key role in navigating complex global issues, including Vatican-China relations and Ukraine.
He is considered a steady, pragmatic leader who understands the inner workings of the Vatican better than most. If elected, a Parolin papacy would likely focus on strengthening the Church’s international relationships while continuing Francis’ reformist policies which could position him as a safe choice.
Betfred
- Huge range of regular promotions
- 24/7 live chat service
- PickYourPunt builder for custom bets
Philippine cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is the 7/2 second favourite, seen as a candidate who could bring a global appeal and an inclusive perspective to the papacy.
Tagle, 67, aligns closely with Francis’ vision of a more inclusive Church, having advocated for a softer approach toward marginalised groups.
Formerly Archbishop of Manila and now serving in a key Vatican role overseeing evangelisation, Tagle is beloved for his warmth and communication skills.
His deep connection with the Church in Asia and the developing world could mark a significant shift from recent European popes.
He has even been dubbed the “Asian Francis” for his progressive views and dedication to social issues.
BoyleSports
- Consistent and regular promotions
- Flush and fast app available on both iOS and Android
- Licensed by the UK Gambling Commission
Parolin and Tagle remain the frontrunners with the bookmakers but a long-shot candidate is starting to attract significant attention from online bettors.
In the past month, Jose Tolentino has become the fourth most backed Cardinal in the market, accounting for 7% of all bets placed.
That’s a notable rise from the previous month, where he captured just 2% of the market and ranked as the ninth most backed candidate.
Despite the uptick in support, Tolentino remains a 40/1 outsider in the market on BoyleSports.
Sam Eaton, oddschecker UK Country Manager, commented: “Outsiders shouldn’t be discounted in the Next Pope betting market. Back in 2013, Jorge Mario Bergoglio was 50/1 just two days before being elected.
“We likely won’t have long to wait either – bookmakers have May 8th as the favourite for the date of the Papal announcement at 6/5. May 9th follows at 7/4, while tomorrow is considered unlikely at 11/1.”
