Pierbattista Pizzaballa has been backed in to become the next Pope as the betting market shifts following black smoke on the first day of the Papal Conclave.
The first round of voting in the Sistine Chapel concluded without agreement, as signalled by the appearance of black smoke over Vatican City on Wednesday evening.
It was estimated that 30,000 people were in St Peter's Square waiting to see the smoke - white would have meant a new pope had been elected.
While the Cardinals continue their deliberations today, the next pope betting market has responded swiftly to the initial outcome.
One of the most notable developments has been a significant surge in support for Pierbattista Pizzaballa, an Italian who has served as Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem since November 2020.
His odds have shortened considerably, moving from as high as 9/1 to as low as 4/1 with BoyleSports. Despite this momentum, Ladbrokes are still offering 7/1, suggesting there’s variation in confidence across the market.
Congolese prelate Fridolin Ambongo Besungu has also seen a sharp cut in his odds. Four UK bookmakers have reduced his price from 33/1 to as short as 16/1, reflecting an uptick in betting activity.
Next Pope Odds
| Next Pope | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 5/2 | 29% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 7/2 | 22% |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | 7/1 | 13% |
| Matteo Zuppi | 8/1 | 11% |
Who is the favourite to become the new pope?
Pietro Parolin continues to lead the betting according to the betting odds and remains the most backed candidate among punters through oddschecker.
Since the conclave began, the favourite Parolin has attracted nearly a quarter of all bets placed on oddschecker, more than any other candidate. His current odds of 5/2 on Sky Bet imply a 29% chance of being elected the next Pontiff.
Outside of Parolin, there’s growing interest in outsider Cristóbal López Romero.
Despite being a 66/1 longshot (William Hill), he has attracted nearly 7% of all bets placed since the first round concluded — making him the third most-backed Cardinal in that period.
William Hill
- Solid in-play betting service
- Cash-in option to help increase profitability
- Excellent reputation within the UK betting-industry
López Romero is the second longshot to emerge since the start of the papal conclave after Jose Tolentino, who as of Tuesday had become the fourth most backed Cardinal in the last month, accounting for 7% of all bets placed.
That’s a notable rise from the previous month, where he had captured just 2% of the market and ranked as the ninth most backed candidate. Despite the uptick in support, Tolentino remains a 40/1 outsider at best price (shortest 28/1).
Sam Eaton, UK Country Manager at oddschecker, said: “We expect to see continued market movement with each appearance of black smoke. Bettors are clearly open to backing outsiders — just as they were in 2013 when Jorge Mario Bergoglio was elected as Pope Francis despite being a 50/1 outsider.
“The Next Pope market has now overtaken every other individual betting market this week in terms of volume. Interest has surged across the globe, particularly in countries like the UK, USA, Ireland, Sweden, Hungary, the Netherlands and Italy.
“According to Google Trends, the level of engagement with the 2025 Next Pope betting market is now outpacing even the Grand National, which is watched by an estimated 800 million people worldwide. The scale of interest has been truly remarkable.”
Ladbrokes
- Wide range of markets available such as sports, virtuals, politics etc.
- Flush and fast app available on both iOS and Android
- Licensed by the UK Gambling Commission
Pope Betting Markets
According to data from oddschecker, interest has reached record levels in recent weeks, with over £100 million expected to be wagered worldwide on the Next Pope market before a verdict is reached.
133 cardinals from across the world are gathered in the Vatican to complete the process of electing a new pontiff following the death of Pope Francis. Before the chapel doors shut, they took an oath in which they promised to keep secret all matters related to the vote.
They will have no contact with the outside world until a new Pope is elected.
