The Gorton and Denton by-election has transformed from a routine Labour defence into a three-way contest.
The Gorton and Denton by-election has quickly become one of the most politically charged contests of the year, despite being centred on a seat Labour dominated as recently as 2024.
Triggered by the resignation of former MP Andrew Gwynne following controversy over offensive messages, the vote now doubles as an early verdict on Keir Starmer’s government in Greater Manchester.
The constituency itself is complex and politically fragmented, stretching from predominantly white, working-class Denton to the more diverse and heavily Muslim communities of Gorton, Levenshulme and Burnage.
Labour’s once-commanding majority, Reform UK’s growing presence on the right under Nigel Farage, and a Green Party campaign targeting disillusioned left-leaning voters have combined to create what is shaping up to be a genuine three-way fight in a seat that would once have been considered safely red.
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Gorton & Denton by-election Odds
| Party | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Green | 4/9 | BetVictor |
| Reform | 18/5 | AKBets |
| Labour | 17/2 | AKBets |
| Workers Party of Britain | 66/1 | Paddy Power |
| Advance UK | 200/1 | StarSports |
| Conservatives | 500/1 | Betfred |
| Liberal Democrats | 500/1 | Betfred |
| Social Democrats | 1000/1 | Bet365 |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and were correct at the time of writing (16:00, Monday 16th February). For the full market, visit the Gorton & Denton by-election page on Oddschecker .
Who's Favourite to win the Gorton & Denton by-election?
In the betting, the Green Party are 4/9 favourites with BetVictor, implying around a 69% chance of victory.
In the last seven days Green party have received 43% of total bets to win.
Reform UK are 18/5 with AKBets (approximately a 22% implied probability), a price that suggests bookmakers believe a breakthrough is possible if Labour and the Greens split the left-of-centre vote.
They have taken 36% of total bets in the last seven days.
Meanwhile, Labour Party sit at 17/2 (around 10%), a remarkable drift for a party that won comfortably here just 18 months ago, underlining how dramatically the political mood – and market expectations – have shifted in a short space of time.
They have recieved 15% of total bets.
When is the Gorton & Denton By-Election?
The Gorton & Denton by-election is scheduled to take place on Thursday 26th February 2026. Polling stations across the constituency will open from 7 am to 10 pm, with results expected later that evening once counting is complete.
