After winning the Gorton and Denton by-election on Thursday, bookmakers have cut the Green Party's odds for success at the election.
The Gorton & Denton by‑election has triggered a major reaction across political betting markets, with the Green Party seeing a dramatic move in the Most Seats at the Next General Election market following their historic win in Greater Manchester.
Hannah Spencer’s victory not only delivered the Greens their first-ever Westminster by‑election win, but also forced bookmakers to reassess how competitive the party could be nationally if similar vote patterns are repeated.
What Happened in Gorton & Denton?
The Greens overturned a Labour majority of more than 13,000, winning the seat by 4,402 votes and pushing Labour into third place, behind both the Greens and Reform UK.
It was a landmark result:
- The Green Party’s first parliamentary by‑election victory
- Their first MP elected in the north of England
- A 26.4 percentage point swing from Labour to the Greens
- One of the largest Labour by‑election defeats in decades
While by‑elections are not always reliable predictors of general elections, the scale of the swing and Labour’s collapse have not gone unnoticed by bettors.
Green Party Odds: Then vs Now
The reaction in the betting markets has been swift.
In late November 2025, the Green Party were priced at 500/1 to win the Most Seats at the Next General Election.
Following the Gorton & Denton result, they are now trading at around 5/1.
That represents an increase of +16.47 percentage points, one of the most dramatic political re‑ratings seen this election cycle.
Who is the favourite to win Most Seats at the Next General Election?
At the time of writing, Reform are the 2/1 favourites to win the Most Seats at the Next General Election. They are followed by Labour (9/4) and Conservatives (7/1).
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Labour | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Green | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Conservatives | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Restore Britain | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Liberal Democrats | 40/1 | 2.4% |
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Where Is the Money Going?
Punters have followed the price move rather than faded it.
- 62% of bets placed today in the Most Seats market have backed the Green Party
- Support has been consistent throughout the day rather than driven by a single surge of money.
- That suggests bettors are not simply reacting to a headline result, but reassessing the Greens’ broader electoral ceiling in a fragmented, multi‑party landscape.
Leadership Fallout Reflected in the Markets
The by‑election has also had a significant impact on leadership betting.
• 84% of bets today have backed Kier Starmer to leave his role as Prime Minister in 2026
• Odds have shortened from 8/11 to 1/4 since the result
With Labour losing a once‑safe seat and finishing third, markets have moved quickly to price in increased political pressure at the top.
Why Bettors Are Repricing the Greens
The market move is less about one seat and more about what it represents:
• Proof the Greens can convert polling into wins, not just vote share
• Evidence of tactical voting breaking in their favour
• A fragmented opposition where seat efficiency matters more than raw votes
If similar dynamics play out in urban Labour‑held seats, bettors clearly believe the Greens could win far more MPs than previously priced in.
Verdict
The Gorton & Denton by‑election may not determine the next General Election — but it has fundamentally changed how the Green Party is viewed by betting markets.
A move from 500/1 outsiders to 5/1 contenders reflects a reassessment of what is now considered possible, rather than probable.
For now, the Greens remain outsiders in the race for most seats — but the market is no longer treating them as a long‑shot.
For general election betting, by-elections and political specials, visit the Oddschecker British Politics odds hub .
