Reform have shortened to 1/33 to win the 2026 UK Local Elections as polling stations are open across the country.
Reform UK are now overwhelming favourites to win the 2026 UK Local Elections, with Oddschecker showing Nigel Farage’s party at 1/33 — an implied probability of 97% — while some bookmakers have gone as short as 1/500.
The market move comes on polling day, with voters across England, Scotland and Wales taking part in what has been widely framed as the biggest electoral test of Keir Starmer’s Labour government since the 2024 general election. Around 5,000 English council seats are being contested, alongside elections for the Scottish Parliament, the Senedd and several mayoralties.
Reuters has described the elections as a potential sign of “the beginning of the end” for Britain’s traditional two-party system, with Reform UK, the Greens and nationalist parties threatening to take votes from Labour and the Conservatives.
Who is Favourite to Win the 2026 UK Local Elections?
Reform UK are the clear favourites to win the 2026 UK Local Elections, priced at 1/33 across Oddschecker — an implied probability of 97%. Nigel Farage’s party are as short as 1/500 with some bookmakers, putting them well clear of Labour, the Greens and Conservatives.
| UK Local Elections Winner | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Reform | 1/33 | William Hill |
| Green | 50/1 | Sky Bet |
| Labour | 100/1 | Sky Bet |
| Conservatives | 125/1 | Sky Bet |
| Liberal Democrats | 150/1 | Betfred |
Greens favourites for second place
While Reform look almost uncatchable at the top of the market, the race for second place is tighter.
The Greens are currently 11/8 favourites to finish second at the local elections, ahead of Labour at 9/4. However, Labour have been the most popular selection with Oddschecker users today, taking 42% of all bets in the market.
That split between odds and betting activity reflects one of the key questions of the election: whether Labour’s vote collapses evenly across the country, or whether the party can hold enough urban and London support to avoid an even more damaging result.
The Green threat to Labour has been especially visible in London. More in Common’s London MRP suggested Labour remains on course to lead in 21 of the capital’s 32 boroughs, but with its vote share down 15 points since the 2024 general election and traditional strongholds under pressure from Zack Polanski’s Greens.
Keir Starmer's 2026 exit odds shorten
The local election betting has also fed directly into Labour leadership markets.
In the Keir Starmer Exit Date market, 83% of bets have backed the Prime Minister to leave in 2026. That outcome is now priced at 1/3, implying a 75% chance.
AP described the elections as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership, while the Guardian reported that Labour faces the prospect of historic losses, with leadership speculation already circling figures including Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham.
Punters are also looking beyond Starmer. In the market on the next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer, 49% of bets today have backed either Angela Rayner or Andy Burnham, who are priced at 3/1 and 4/1 respectively.
That betting trend mirrors wider political pressure on the Labour leader. A UCL Policy Lab report, covered by the Guardian, warned that Starmer is struggling to connect with progressive voters, while YouGov’s April favourability polling found Andy Burnham remains the most popular Labour figure among the public.
Badenoch also under pressure
The leadership pressure is not confined to Labour.
In the Kemi Badenoch Exit Date market, 80% of bets have backed a 2026 exit for the Conservative leader. She is currently 4/6 to leave this year, while James Cleverly is the 5/1 favourite in the next Tory leader market.
The Conservatives are facing their own Reform problem, with Badenoch forced to address questions over possible local deals with Farage’s party during the campaign before rowing back and insisting there would be no council tie-ups.
Reform now favourites for most seats at the next general election
Reform’s local election dominance in the betting is also feeding into the next general election markets.
They are now 11/8 favourites to win the most seats at the next general election, and have shortened to 10/11 with some bookmakers today. Labour are 3/1, the Conservatives 6/1, and the Greens 9/1.
With Reform leading the latest YouGov voting intention poll and now trading at odds-on prices in places, the betting suggests punters are increasingly treating this local election not just as a mid-term protest vote, but as evidence of a longer-term realignment in British politics.
