The pressure continues to mount on Keir Starmer. Who do the bookmakers think could replace him as Labour party leader?
Bookmakers have cut Keir Starmer’s odds to leave office in 2026 to as short as 1/3, with July to September 2026 now the most likely exit window at 6/5.
Oddschecker data shows that 67% of bets in the last 24 hours have backed Starmer to leave in 2026, following renewed pressure on the Prime Minister after a damaging set of election results for Labour.
Reuters reported that Starmer has insisted his government remains a “10-year project” despite calls for him to quit, while Labour’s poor local election performance has increased unrest among MPs. A leadership challenge would require the backing of 20% of Labour MPs, currently equivalent to 81 MPs.
Andy Burnham favourite in next Labour leader odds
Andy Burnham is now the 9/4 favourite in the next Labour leader betting market, having been available at odds as big as 10/1 a month ago.
| Next Labour Leader | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 9/4 | bet365 |
| Angela Rayner | 7/2 | Betfred |
| Wes Streeting | 6/1 | Star Sports |
| Ed Miliband | 10/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Shabana Mahmood | 16/1 | bet365 |
The Greater Manchester Mayor has attracted 39% of bets in the next Labour leader market, making him the clear favourite with Oddschecker users.
However, Burnham’s route to the Labour leadership is not straightforward. He is not currently an MP, meaning he would be unable to stand in an immediate leadership contest unless he first returned to Parliament. Reuters and The Guardian have both highlighted Burnham’s parliamentary status as a key obstacle to any near-term leadership bid.
Angela Rayner second most popular pick with bettors
Angela Rayner has also been popular in the betting, taking 19% of bets over the past week to become the second most-backed candidate in the market.
Rayner’s profile has risen further after she criticised Labour’s direction following the party’s election losses. Sky News reported that Rayner said Labour’s current approach “isn’t working” and argued that blocking Burnham’s return to Parliament had been a mistake.
That puts two politically significant names at the top of the betting: Burnham as the outside-Parliament comeback option, and Rayner as the high-profile internal Labour figure attracting sustained punter interest.
Why are Starmer exit odds shortening?
The shortening price on a 2026 Starmer exit reflects a wider political crisis for Labour.
A recent YouGov Westminster voting intention poll put Reform UK on 25%, ahead of Labour on 18% and the Conservatives on 17%, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats also close behind.
That polling backdrop helps explain why bettors are moving towards both a Labour leadership change and an earlier-than-expected general election.
Most seats and next general election betting
Despite being second favourites in the Most Seats at the next General Election market, Labour have taken just 8% of bets over the past fortnight.
Meanwhile, 41% of bets in the last 24 hours have backed the next general election to take place in 2026, which is currently priced at 10/1.
A Labour leadership change would not automatically trigger a general election. The Institute for Government explains that elections must be held no more than five years apart, but the timing is otherwise determined by the Prime Minister, while the next UK general election must be called by August 2029 at the latest.
