Keir Starmer’s odds to leave office in 2026 have shortened from 1/3 on Monday to as short as 1/40 on Tuesday morning.
Bookmakers have dramatically cut the price on Keir Starmer leaving office in 2026, with the Prime Minister now as short as 1/40 to depart in 2026.
That marks a major shortening from 1/3 on Monday, as the latest Keir Starmer news continues to centre on whether the Prime Minister can survive growing pressure from within the Labour Party.
Despite the market move, Starmer has so far resisted calls to step down. Reuters reported on Tuesday that senior minister Darren Jones said it was “not inevitable” that Starmer would resign, adding that the Prime Minister was listening to colleagues amid mounting internal concern.
Will Keir Starmer resign today?
The betting market suggests a Starmer exit is now being treated as increasingly likely in 2026, but there has been no confirmed resignation.
Sky News reported on Tuesday morning that Starmer was holding a crucial cabinet meeting while facing calls from more than 70 Labour MPs to resign, with Miatta Fahnbulleh becoming the first government minister to quit and publicly call for the Prime Minister to go.
Under Labour rules, a leadership election can be triggered if the leader resigns or if 20% of Labour MPs nominate a challenger, according to the Institute for Government.
Who is the favourite to be Next Prime Minister?
In the Next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer market, Andy Burnham is the most-backed selection on Oddschecker today, taking 27% of bets and is the market favourite at 11/5.
| Next PM after Keir Starmer | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 11/5 | bet365 |
| Angela Rayner | 9/2 | Unibet |
| Wes Streeting | 5/1 | Bet Goodwin |
| Ed Miliband | 17/2 | Bet Goodwin |
| Yvette Cooper | 22/1 | bet365 |
The same pattern is playing out in the Next Labour Leader market, where Burnham is the 9/4 favourite and has taken 28% of bets today.
Burnham’s popularity with punters comes despite a major procedural obstacle: he is not currently an MP. Reuters reported that Starmer said the question of whether Burnham could return to Parliament was a matter for Labour’s National Executive Committee, while noting that Burnham is currently ineligible to challenge for the leadership because he is not in the Commons.
Angela Rayner has also helped keep Burnham’s name in the spotlight. Sky News reported that Rayner said blocking Burnham’s return to Parliament had been a mistake after Labour’s damaging election results.
72% of bets today back a 2026 general election
The pressure on Starmer is also feeding into the Next General Election Date market.
Oddschecker data shows 72% of bets today have backed 2026 to be the year of the next general election, with that outcome currently priced at 8/1.
A change of Labour leader would not automatically trigger a general election, but the betting suggests punters are increasingly expecting political volatility well before the latest possible election date.
