Angela Rayner has been backed into 5/2 to be the next UK Prime Minister after Keir Starmer.
Rayner’s odds have been cut from 6/1 to 5/2 overnight, making her the biggest market mover in the Next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer betting.
That surge represents a sharp increase in betting support. Rayner had taken just 8% of bets in the week beforehand, but has accounted for 28% of all bets today on Oddschecker.
The move comes after Reuters reported that Rayner had been cleared of deliberate wrongdoing over her tax affairs, removing a major obstacle to a potential leadership bid. Rayner has not confirmed whether she would stand, but said Starmer should “reflect” on his position following Labour’s poor election results.
Who is Favourite to be Next Prime Minister?
| Candidate | Latest Best Odds |
|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 10/3 |
| Angela Rayner | 5/1 |
| Wes Streeting | 6/1 |
| Ed Miliband | 17/2 |
| Alistair Carns | 18/1 |
| Shabana Mahmood | 25/1 |
| Yvette Cooper | 25/1 |
| Nigel Farage | 33/1 |
Odds correct as of 09:45 on Thursday 14th May. Odds may change. View the latest Next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer odds on Oddschecker .
Angela Rayner favourite in next Labour leader odds
The same betting pattern is playing out in the Next Labour Leader market, where Angela Rayner is now the 5/2 favourite.
Her shortening price follows renewed speculation over who could succeed Starmer if Labour MPs force a leadership contest or if the Prime Minister decides to step down.
Rayner’s HMRC case has been resolved with no penalty, “paving the way” for a potential leadership bid. The report also said she may enter a contest if one is triggered, while noting that she has ruled out launching a coup herself.
Sky News has also reported that Rayner is prepared to put herself forward if necessary, with an ally saying she would be confident of getting the backing required from Labour MPs to make the ballot.
Andy Burnham drifts for Prime Minister
Previous favourite Andy Burnham has drifted from 9/4 to 3/1 overnight in the Next Prime Minister after Starmer betting.
Burnham had been the leading name in both the next PM and next Labour leader markets earlier in the week, but his path remains complicated because he is not currently an MP.
Reuters reported that Burnham does not currently have the parliamentary seat required to mount a challenge, while the Guardian said several potential routes back to Westminster had failed to materialise.
That appears to have helped shift punter interest towards Rayner, who does not face the same immediate parliamentary eligibility issue.
Ed Miliband second most backed today
Ed Miliband is the second most-backed candidate today in the Next UK Prime Minister market.
His odds have shortened from 8/1 to 5/1 in the last 24 hours, putting him firmly in the conversation as Labour MPs look for a potential alternative from the party’s soft left.
Reuters reported that Labour lawmakers have discussed Miliband as a possible candidate who could represent the left of the party if Burnham or Rayner were unable, or unwilling, to stand.
Keir Starmer exit odds ease after intense pressure
Keir Starmer is currently 1/4 to leave office in 2026, giving him an implied probability of 80%.
That is still a very short price, but it marks a notable easing from earlier in the week, when Starmer had been cut to as short as 1/40 to leave in 2026.
The betting suggests Starmer may have come through the most intense phase of pressure for now, even if the market still strongly expects a 2026 exit.
Reuters reported this week that Starmer faced the biggest challenge of his premiership after more than 90 Labour lawmakers called on him to set out a timetable for his departure. The pressure also overshadowed the King’s Speech, which was intended to set out the government’s agenda.
Under Labour rules, a leadership contest can be triggered if the leader resigns or if 20% of Labour MPs nominate a challenger, according to the Institute for Government.
