Labour remain favourites in the Makerfield odds at 4/7, but Restore Britain have been a market mover after taking 51% of all bets in the last 24 hours.
The latest Makerfield by-election odds still have Labour at the head of the market, with Andy Burnham’s expected route back to Parliament continuing to dominate the political betting landscape.
However, Oddschecker data shows that 51% of all bets in the last 24 hours have backed Restore Britain to win the seat. Their odds have shortened from 20/1 to 9/1 in the same period.
That move adds a new layer to a contest that had initially looked like a straight Labour vs Reform battle.
The by-election was triggered after Labour MP Josh Simons stood down, opening a potential path for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to return to Westminster. Reuters reported that Simons’ resignation was designed to allow Burnham to seek a parliamentary comeback, with Makerfield becoming a key seat in the wider Labour leadership story.
Latest Makerfield Odds
| Party | Latest Odds |
|---|---|
| Labour | 4/7 |
| Reform | 2/1 |
| Restore Britain | 9/1 |
| Green | 175/1 |
| Conservatives | 500/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 500/1 |
Odds may change. View the latest Makerfield odds on Oddschecker .
Restore Britain backed after entering Makerfield race
Restore Britain’s move from 20/1 to 9/1 is the biggest shift in the Makerfield market over the last 24 hours.
The party, founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, has named local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as its Makerfield candidate. The Times reported that Restore Britain’s involvement could take votes that might otherwise have gone to Reform, complicating the race in a seat where Labour are trying to hold off a serious challenge from the right.
That may explain why Restore Britain are attracting such heavy betting interest despite Labour remaining odds-on favourites.
Why Makerfield matters for Andy Burnham
Makerfield is now one of the most important constituencies in UK politics because it could give Burnham a route back into Parliament.
Burnham is not currently an MP, which has been the major barrier to any Labour leadership challenge. The Guardian reported that Labour’s NEC has approved Burnham’s pathway into the Makerfield candidate selection process, while AP said Burnham has framed a potential campaign as a chance to “change Labour”.
The seat is far from a formality. UK Parliament’s official 2024 result shows Labour won Makerfield with 45.2% of the vote, ahead of Reform on 31.8%, giving Labour a majority of 5,399.
The Guardian has also reported that recent local election results in the area suggest Reform could be highly competitive in Makerfield, while The Times described the by-election as an uphill struggle for Burnham.
Next Prime Minister odds: Burnham backed to replace Starmer
The Makerfield odds are closely tied to the Next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer market.
Andy Burnham has shortened from 3/1 to 4/5 to be the next Prime Minister after Starmer over the past five days, with 64% of bets in the last 24 hours backing him.
That move reflects the importance of Makerfield to Burnham’s national ambitions. If he wins the seat, he would have a route back to Westminster and could become a much more direct threat to Keir Starmer’s leadership.
Reuters reported that Burnham has sought to avoid reopening the Brexit debate during the campaign, saying he was not proposing that Britain rejoin the EU. That issue could be significant in a Leave-voting seat where Reform are expected to attack Labour’s position heavily.
Starmer still odds-on to leave in 2026
Keir Starmer is currently 1/6 to leave office in 2026, giving him an implied probability of 85.7% before bookmaker margin.
That keeps the wider Labour leadership story firmly in focus. Makerfield is not just a by-election betting market; it is also a key test of whether Burnham can turn his popularity with punters into a practical route back to Parliament.
