When voters head to the polls on 13 August, they'll be choosing from a record-breaking 34 names on the ballot paper.
Clacton is about to make electoral history. When voters head to the polls on 13 August, they'll be choosing from a record-breaking 34 names on the ballot paper - believed to be the largest field ever assembled for a UK parliamentary contest, eclipsing the 26 candidates who stood in the 2008 Haltemprice and Howden by-election.
The vote was triggered by Nigel Farage's resignation as Clacton's MP, a decision he made while facing scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts, including a reported £5 million contribution from a crypto entrepreneur.
Farage has always maintained he broke no rules and is standing again so that, in his words, the people of Clacton can act as his judge.
With Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all sitting this one out, the contest has been left to a sprawling mix of independents, minor parties and a handful of professional satirists.
Clacton By-Election Odds
Bookmakers are treating this contest as close to a formality for Reform UK, even with dozens of rivals crowding the ballot. The current odds are:
| Candidate/Party | Odds |
|---|---|
| Reform UK (Nigel Farage) | 1/10 |
| Count Binface | 11/1 |
| Labour | 16/1 |
| Monster Raving Loony Party | 100/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 200/1 |
At 1/10, Farage is priced as an overwhelming favourite - a probability of victory well north of 90%. That's a notable contrast with some recent polling, which has shown his personal popularity taking a hit and Reform's national vote share softening slightly since last summer.
Still, in a fragmented field where the other major parties aren't standing candidates of their own, bookmakers clearly see little that could realistically dislodge him.
It's also worth noting the odd shape of this market: Labour and the Liberal Democrats are priced despite not fielding official candidates, reflecting the possibility of a strong write-in or last-minute entry rather than any organised campaign on the ground.
Who Is Favourite to Win the Clacton By-Election
Nigel Farage is the clear favourite, and by some distance. He's the only candidate on the ballot who currently sits - or rather, recently sat - in Parliament, and he's framed his own re-election bid as a referendum on his integrity rather than a conventional campaign.
Farage has argued that voters, not Westminster committees or journalists, should be the ones to judge whether the financial gifts he received should cost him his seat.
That said, the story isn't entirely one-sided. Farage heads into the contest carrying real baggage: an ongoing parliamentary standards inquiry, questions about a seven-figure donation from an overseas backer, and further reporting about additional financial support he received before entering Parliament.
Some polling conducted around the by-election has suggested his personal ratings have slipped compared with a year earlier, and that a meaningful share of voters feel he shouldn't have triggered the contest in the first place.
None of that appears to be moving the betting markets much, but it does mean Farage's task is not quite the walkover the raw odds might suggest - reputational headwinds are real, even if a divided opposition makes them hard to capitalise on electorally.
Count Bin Face Clacton Odds
The standout story of this by-election isn't really about who's likely to win - it's about who's turned up to make the exercise interesting. Count Binface, the sci-fi-themed satirical alter ego of comedian Jon Harvey, sits at 11/1, making him the clearest second-favourite in the field and, by some measure, the most talked-about challenger to Farage.
Binface is a veteran of these contests, having previously stood against a sitting prime minister in his own constituency and twice run for London Mayor. His pitch mixes genuine local campaigning language with tongue-in-cheek policy proposals, and his presence has become something of a fixture whenever a high-profile politician finds themselves facing voters in unusual circumstances.
At 11/1, bookmakers aren't suggesting he's going to win - but they are acknowledging that in a fractured, boycott-shaped field, a well-known novelty candidate can plausibly out-poll several "serious" independents and minor parties, simply on recognition alone.
Clacton By-Election Candidates
The full ballot, confirmed by Tendring District Council, features 34 names:
- Joseph 77 (Independent)
- Adham Alkhatip (The Forward Party)
- Count Binface (Count Binface Party)
- Nick The Incredible Flying Brick (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
- Tony Cane (Independent)
- Woke Trump Carrzee (Independent)
- William Stuart James Clouston (Social Democratic Party)
- Rees Cowne (Independent)
- Glenn Charles Cummings (Independent)
- Martin Davies (Freedom Alliance)
- Andy Erlam (Independent)
- Nigel Farage (Reform UK)
- Attieh Fard (Independent)
- Laurence Fox (The Reclaim Party)
- Tony Francis (Independent)
- Robin Green (Independent)
- Abi Hookway (Independent)
- Howling Laud Hope (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
- Stephen Richard Ingram (Independent)
- Amy Morris (Independent)
- Derrick Norbert Morris (Independent)
- Michael Noel O'Keeffe (Independent)
- Martyn O'Brien (Independent)
- Nick Pelas (Independent)
- Ketankumar Pipaliya (UK Voice – Safer and Stronger UK)
- Daniel Pocock (Independent)
- James Ransley (Consensus)
- Gerry Smith (Independent)
- Kai Stephens (British Democrats)
- John Stevens (Rejoin EU)
- Baron Von Thunderclap (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
- Pamela Walford (Independent)
- Marcus White (Everyone is God Party)
- Marc Wilkinson (Essex People / Independent)
Beyond Farage and Binface, a few names stand out. Laurence Fox, the actor turned Reclaim Party leader, is running on an anti-"woke" platform. John Stevens, a former Conservative MEP, represents the pro-EU Rejoin EU Party. William Clouston leads the Social Democratic Party on a socially conservative, sovereignty-focused ticket. And with 20 of the 34 candidates standing as independents, there's plenty of room for hyper-local pitches on housing, high streets and mental health services to jostle for attention alongside the national headline names.
Postal vote applications close on 29 July, and the polls open on 13 August.
