Nigel Farage is on course to win back the Clacton seat he quit weeks ago, but a record 34-candidate field and a resurgent Count Binface are making it far from a foregone conclusion.
Nigel Farage is on course to be re-elected as Clacton's MP just weeks after he stood down from the seat, but the bookmakers' overwhelming favourite is facing an unusually crowded and unpredictable contest.
Voters go to the polls on Thursday, August 13, choosing from a record 34 names on the ballot paper, the largest field ever assembled for a UK parliamentary election. Farage triggered the vote himself, resigning as Clacton's MP while a parliamentary standards probe into undeclared financial gifts, including a multi-million-pound donation, was ongoing.
He insists he has done nothing wrong and wants Clacton's voters, not a Westminster committee, to have the final say.
With Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all declining to field candidates, the contest has become a magnet for independents, minor parties and a clutch of serial by-election entrants, most notably Count Binface, the dustbin-helmeted satirist who has built a habit of turning up wherever a big political name is under pressure.
Recent polling suggests Farage's personal ratings have softened since he first won the seat in 2024, and while the odds still make him a near-certainty, the scale and shape of this field make it one of the more interesting by-elections in years.
Clacton By-Election Odds
The betting markets leave little doubt about the outcome, even with 34 names on the ballot. The current prices are:
Reform UK (Nigel Farage) — 1/20
Count Binface (Count Binface Party) — 25/1 (SpreadEX)
Monster Raving Loony Party — 500/1
At 1/20, Farage is priced as an overwhelming certainty, implying a win probability comfortably north of 95%. He is as short as 1/400 with one bookamker.
That's despite recent polling pointing to some erosion in his personal popularity and in Reform's national standing since his 2024 victory.
Count Binface remains the clear second name in the market, with SpreadEX pricing him at 25/1 - short enough to reflect genuine name recognition and a track record of outperforming other novelty and independent candidates in high-profile contests.
The Monster Raving Loony Party, fielding three separate candidates in this election, sit back at 500/1 along with the rest of the candidates who are all 500/1 or bigger..
Who Is Favourite to Win the Clacton By-Election
Farage is favourite by some distance, and it isn't close. He's the only candidate in the field with recent parliamentary experience, and he's cast the entire contest as a personal referendum, asking voters to judge him directly rather than leave the question to Westminster's standards process.
That framing hasn't been cost-free. He resigned while a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared donations was live, and that inquiry has been paused rather than concluded while the by-election plays out.
Polling in the run-up to the vote has pointed to a real dent in his personal ratings compared with a year ago, with a portion of voters saying they feel he shouldn't have forced this contest in the first place.
None of that has meaningfully dented his position at the top of the betting, but it does suggest his path back to Parliament carries more friction than the raw odds imply, helped considerably by a fractured field where no single rival party is positioned to consolidate the opposition vote.
Nigel Farage Clacton By-Election Odds
Farage is priced at 1/20 to retake the seat he vacated only weeks ago, making him a near-lock in the eyes of the bookmakers.
He won Clacton for the first time in the 2024 general election, beating the sitting Conservative candidate, and resigned this year specifically to force this by-election and seek a fresh mandate. His campaign has centred on the donations row rather than avoiding it, arguing that transparency and a direct vote from Clacton residents matter more than a Westminster inquiry that remains unresolved.
The scale of the field working against him, 33 other names, none from a major party, actually plays into his hands, since opposition votes have nowhere obvious to consolidate.
Recent polling suggesting a meaningful swing toward Count Binface hasn't moved his odds, with bookmakers still treating a Farage defeat as a major upset rather than a live possibility.
When Is the Clacton By-Election?
Polling day is Thursday, August 13, with polling stations open from 7am to 10pm. Anyone already registered will have received a poll card confirming their designated polling station. The deadline to register to vote has already passed, as has the deadline to apply for a standard postal vote. Voters who still need a proxy vote have until 5pm on August 5 to apply.
The by-election was formally called on July 10, following Farage's resignation and his appointment to the ceremonial role of Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, the mechanism used to allow a sitting MP to leave the Commons outside of a general election.
Clacton By-Election Candidates
The full list of 34 candidates confirmed by Tendring District Council is the largest ever assembled for a UK parliamentary by-election, surpassing the 26-candidate field seen at Haltemprice and Howden in 2008.
Reform UK's Nigel Farage heads the ballot, with the rest of the field made up almost entirely of independents and smaller parties, including Count Binface (Count Binface Party), Laurence Fox (Reclaim), William Clouston (Social Democratic Party), John Stevens (Rejoin EU), Martin Davies (Freedom Alliance), Ketankumar Pipaliya (UKVoice), James Ransley (Consensus Party), Kai Stephens (British Democrats), Marcus White (Everyone Is God Party), and three separate Monster Raving Loony Party candidates - Nick the Incredible Flying Brick, Howling Laud Hope and Baron Von Thunderclap.
Twenty of the 34 candidates are standing as independents, ranging from local campaigners focused on High Street regeneration and mental health services to first-time candidates driven by single-issue causes such as inheritance tax.
