Labour odds have shortened further ahead of the Holborn & St Pancras By-election.
Holborn and St Pancras by-election odds have shortened further on Labour since the full candidate list landed.
Polling day is Thursday 8 October 2026 and Labour are 1/8 best and 1/16 worst to hold Sir Keir Starmer’s old seat. They have shortened from a best price of 1/4 1 week ago. The Green Party remain the only serious second price at 7/1 best and 9/2 worst.
Nominations closed on 15 September. Fifteen candidates are confirmed. The contest is still framed as Labour versus Green nationally, with George Galloway (Workers Party), Reform UK, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and a long tail of smaller parties and independents now named on the ballot.
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Odds
Who is favourite to win the Holborn and St Pancras By-Election?
| Selection | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 1/8 | 1/16 |
| Green | 7/1 | 9/2 |
| Workers Party of Britain | 125/1 | 66/1 |
| Reform | 325/1 | 100/1 |
| Restore Britain | 550/1 | 150/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 550/1 | 100/1 |
| Conservatives | 550/1 | 100/1 |
Labour are red hot favourites. A best price of 1/8 against a 1/16 worst shows how tightly the books are aligned on a hold. Greens are clear second: 7/1 best is available, but some books are as short as 9/2. Workers Party are third on the priced board at 125/1 best after Galloway’s confirmation. Reform, Restore Britain, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives are all triple figure best prices with large gaps to their worst odds.
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Candidates
- Labour: Sagal Abdi-Wali, Camden Council leader since May 2026 and councillor for Camden Square since 2022.
- Greens: Zack Polanski, party leader since September 2025 and London Assembly member since 2021.
- Conservatives: Ewan Cameron.
- Liberal Democrats: Patrick Thomas Stillman (Camden councillor).
- Reform UK: Peter Newman.
- Workers Party: George Galloway.
- Restore Britain: Tyler Johnson.
- Also nominated: Barmy Brunch (Official Monster Raving Loony), Tom Darwood (independent), Clare Fischer (Climate Party), Briony Kapoor (Rejoin EU), Ketankumar Pipaliya (UK Voice), Jonathan Silberman (Communist League), Helen Spiby-Vann (Christian Peoples Alliance), Ben Walker (UKIP).
Starmer resigned as MP on 1 September to focus on international affairs work, triggering the by-election in a seat Labour have held since it was created in 1983. At the 2024 general election he won 18,884 votes (48.9%) and an 11,572 majority. Andrew Feinstein (independent) finished second on 18.9%. The Greens were third on 10.4%, Conservatives 7.2%, Reform 6.1%, Liberal Democrats 5.8%.
Why Labour Are Favourites
Why Labour are prohibitive favourites (1/8): Even after a rough patch locally, Labour's underlying strength in the seat is huge. They won it with 48.9% of the vote and an 11,572 majority in 2024, and the seat has been Labour-held continuously since it was created in 1983 - Starmer held it from 2015 before standing down. Incumbency, machine strength in a seat Camden Council itself is run from, and the sheer size of that 2024 cushion make it very hard to see a genuine upset even with turnout usually collapsing at by-elections (which tends to help whichever party has the best get-out-the-vote operation - normally the incumbent).
Why Greens are the clear second favourites: Two things stack up in their favour:
- The candidate matters — this isn't a paper candidate, it's Zack Polanski, the Green Party's own leader, running in a seat where he says he's lived and worked for two decades. A leader standing personally raises the profile and resourcing of the campaign well above a typical by-election effort.
- The trends — in the May 2026 Camden local elections across these wards, Labour led the Greens 38.8% to 28.8%, a much tighter gap than the near-30-point gulf in the 2024 general election (Greens were down on 10.4% then, behind a left-wing independent on 18.9%). That swing is widely read as fallout from dissatisfaction with the government's approach to Gaza, and it's the reason commentators are treating this by-election as a genuine test of whether Labour's psychological "Burnham bounce" extends to London.
When is the Holborn and St Pancras By-Election?
The Holborn and St Pancras by-election polling day is October 8, 2026.
