The bookmakers have Labour as a near certainty to win the Holborn and St Pancras By-Election.
Holborn and St Pancras has elected a Labour MP at every election since the seat was created in 1983, and the bookmakers expect that to continue on 8 October. The by-election is the first contest to replace a former prime minister in his own constituency in a generation. Sir Keir Starmer left Downing Street in July and resigned as an MP on 1 September. His decision leaves Andy Burnham facing his first by-election test as prime minister, in a central London seat where the Greens think they have a real opening.
The Green Party leader, Zack Polanski, is the candidate, and the left-wing independent vote, Andrew Feinstein, that took almost a fifth of the vote in 2024 is supporting him.
But George Galloway's late entry has split that anti-Labour left vote, and Labour's price has shortened ever since.
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Odds
Who's Favourite to Win the Holborn and St Pancras By-Election?
| Selection | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 1/10 | bet365, William Hill, Betfred, Ladbrokes, 10bet, BetGoodwin, Betway, Coral, BetAhoy, BetTom, AK Bets | 1/16 |
| Green | 7/1 | AK Bets | 5/1 |
| Workers Party of Britain | 150/1 | bet365 | 66/1 |
| Reform UK | 600/1 | bet365, AK Bets | 100/1 |
| Restore Britain | 750/1 | bet365, AK Bets | 150/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 750/1 | bet365, AK Bets | 100/1 |
| Conservatives | 750/1 | bet365, AK Bets | 100/1 |
Labour are the favourites at 1/10, which implies a chance of around 91%. Sky Bet and Paddy Power go as short as 1/16. Oddschecker's bet history shows how the price has moved. At the start of September, bet365 had Labour at 1/4. That came in to 1/5 on 16 September, 1/7 the next day and 1/10 by 18 September, where it has stayed.
The timing matters. Galloway confirmed on 14 September that he would stand, and nominations closed the next day. Labour's price shortened in the days that followed. The Greens went the other way, from around 3/1 with bet365 on 2 September to 6/1 by 18 September. They are now a best price of 7/1, which implies a chance of about 12.5%.
The 2024 result explains why Labour start so far ahead. Starmer won 48.9% of the vote and a majority of 11,572. Andrew Feinstein, a pro-Palestinian independent, came second with 18.9%, and the Greens were third on 10.4%. Feinstein is not standing this time. He and his Camden People's Alliance have endorsed Polanski. Feinstein told his supporters to back the Green leader "so we can consign not just Starmer but Starmerism too, to the dustbin of history".
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Candidates
Fifteen candidates are on the ballot. Labour's candidate is Sagal Abdi-Wali, who has led Camden Council since May and came to London as a child refugee from Somalia. She has called the contest "quite a big test for the party". Polanski has led the Greens since September 2025 and sits on the London Assembly. He is trying to win the party's first seat in London.
Galloway, a seven-time MP for five different seats, is standing for the Workers Party, which he founded and leads. His deputy leader, Chris Williamson, resigned in protest and urged voters to back Polanski instead. Reform UK are standing former Metropolitan Police officer Peter Newman. The Conservatives are standing Ewan Cameron and the Liberal Democrats Patrick Stillman. Tyler Johnson stands for Restore Britain.
The rest of the ballot is made up of Barmy Brunch (Monster Raving Loony), Tom Darwood, Clare Fischer (Climate Party), Briony Kapoor (Rejoin EU), Ketankumar Pipaliya (UK Voice), Jonathan Silberman (Communist League), Helen Spiby-Vann (Christian Peoples Alliance) and Ben Walker (UKIP). Your Party is not fielding a candidate.
When is the Holborn and St Pancras By-Election?
Polling day is Thursday 8 October, with polling stations open from 7am to 10pm. Counting begins after the polls close. The result is expected in the early hours of Friday 9 October, but no official declaration time has been published.
