When is the Holborn & St Pancras By-election, who is favourite to win and what is the latest news?
Labour remain overwhelming favourites to hold Holborn and St Pancras on Thursday 8 October, and the bookmakers have shortened Sagal Abdi-Wali further in the final days of the campaign. Labour are 1/16 at best, while Zack Polanski's Greens are 13/1 to cause a shock in Keir Starmer's old seat.
This is the first by-election since Andy Burnham became prime minister, and it follows Starmer's resignation from the Commons on 1 September. Polanski has called the race "probably 50/50 right now… really on a knife edge", but no poll of constituency voters has been published and the betting market tells a very different story.
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Odds
Who is favourite to win the Holborn and St Pancras By-Election?
| Selection | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 1/16 | Betfair Sportsbook, Betway, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 1/80 |
| Green | 13/1 | AK Bets | 15/2 |
| Workers Party of Britain | 200/1 | bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral | 100/1 |
| Tom Darwood (Independent) | 500/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 500/1 |
| Reform | 600/1 | bet365, AK Bets | 100/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 750/1 | bet365, Betfred, AK Bets | 100/1 |
| Conservatives | 750/1 | bet365, Betfred, AK Bets | 100/1 |
| Restore Britain | 1000/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral, AK Bets | 150/1 |
| UK Voice, Rejoin EU, CPA, Monster Raving Loony, Communist League, Climate Party, UKIP | 1000/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 1000/1 |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and correct as of 10:12 BST, Tuesday 6 October 2026 https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/holborn-st-pancras-by-election
Holborn and St Pancras Odds Movement
- Labour opened on 2 September at around 1/4 to 2/7, while the Greens were about 3/1.
- The Greens' best spell came on 3-4 September, when they were cut to 13/8-7/4 and Labour eased to 4/11-2/5.
- They then drifted, and the decisive swing came on 16-18 September, after the candidate list was published on 15 September: Labour shortened to 1/10-1/12 (Spreadex 1/16) and the Greens went out to 5/1-13/2.
- The market then squeezed gradually, with the Greens reaching 8/1-9/1 by 2 October.
- Their biggest one-day drift came on 5 October, the day after their conference passed the Zionism motion, going from 7/1-17/2 to 10/1-13/1, while Labour were cut to 1/25-1/33 with most books.
- Today Labour are 1/16 at best and 1/33 with most firms, and the Greens are 13/1 at best and 10/1 with most.
Green Party Odds After the Zionism Motion Row
The Greens' weekend was dominated by their conference vote in Brighton on Sunday 4 October. Members passed a motion defining Zionism as racism by 1,022 votes to 813. Polanski missed the vote to campaign in the constituency, and four of the party's five MPs opposed the motion. Israel's foreign minister barred Polanski from entering the country that evening.
Polanski responded on Monday: "As leader I will not accept any exclusion, or refusal to engage with anyone, because of the religious or communal body they are part of." He added that "antisemitism and criticism of the Israeli state are, and must always be, completely distinct."
The Greens have picked up support from former Labour MP Emma Dent Coad. Andrew Feinstein, the independent who finished second here in 2024, isn't standing and has also backed Polanski.
Green Vote Share Odds and Specials
Ladbrokes and Coral have a Green vote share market. Between 25% and 29.99% is the 2/1 favourite, with 30% to 34.99% at 9/4 and 20% to 24.99% at 4/1. A Green share of 45% or more is 20/1.
Reform and the Conservatives are a near coin flip to finish ahead of each other: the Conservatives are 5/6 everywhere, and Reform are 5/6 with Betfred.
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Date and Candidates
Polls open from 7am to 10pm on Thursday 8 October. Voters need photo ID at polling stations, and postal votes must reach Camden Council by 10pm. The count takes place overnight, with the result expected in the early hours of Friday 9 October.
Fifteen candidates are standing. Labour's Abdi-Wali is the Camden Council leader and Polanski is the Green Party leader. George Galloway is standing for the Workers Party, Peter Newman for Reform UK, Ewan Cameron for the Conservatives and Patrick Thomas Stillman for the Liberal Democrats.
Starmer won the seat in 2024 with 18,884 votes and a majority of 11,572 over Feinstein.
