When is the Holborn & St Pancras By-election, who is favourite to win and what is the latest news?
Labour go into polling day in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election as heavy favourites. The bookmakers have shortened Sagal Abdi-Wali again this morning, even as the Greens make a final push to take Keir Starmer's old seat. Abdi-Wali is 1/25 at best and as short as 1/50, which implies a win chance of about 96%. Green Party leader Zack Polanski is the second favourite at a best price of 16/1.
Polls opened at 7am and close at 10pm. It is Andy Burnham's first by-election as Prime Minister, in a seat Starmer held at the 2024 general election with 18,884 votes and a majority of 11,572. No constituency poll has been published during the campaign, so the betting is the best guide available to how the race stands on the final day.
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Odds
Holborn and St Pancras by-election odds
| Selection | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour (Sagal Abdi-Wali) | 1/25 | William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway, Sky Bet | 1/50 |
| Green (Zack Polanski) | 16/1 | Star Sports, AK Bets | 10/1 |
| Workers Party of Britain (George Galloway) | 250/1 | William Hill | 100/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 750/1 | Betfred, AK Bets | 100/1 |
| Conservatives | 750/1 | Betfred, AK Bets | 100/1 |
| Reform UK | 750/1 | Betfred, AK Bets | 100/1 |
| Restore Britain | 1000/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral, AK Bets | 150/1 |
| Tom Darwood (Independent) | 1000/1 | William Hill | 500/1 |
| Rejoin EU | 1000/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 500/1 |
| UK Voice, CPA, Monster Raving Loony, Communist League, Climate Party, UKIP | 1000/1 | William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral | 1000/1 |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and correct as of 09:15 BST, Thursday 8 October.
Holborn and St Pancras Odds Movement
- Labour opened on 2 September at around 1/4 to 2/7, while the Greens were about 3/1.
- The Greens' best spell came on 3-4 September, when they were cut to 13/8-7/4 and Labour eased to 4/11-2/5.
- They then drifted, and the decisive swing came on 16-18 September, after the candidate list was published on 15 September: Labour shortened to 1/10-1/12 (Spreadex 1/16) and the Greens went out to 5/1-13/2.
- The market then squeezed gradually, with the Greens reaching 8/1-9/1 by 2 October.
- Their biggest one-day drift came on 5 October, the day after their conference passed the Zionism motion, going from 7/1-17/2 to 10/1-13/1, while Labour were cut to 1/25-1/33 with most books.
- Labour have tightened their grip on the market since Tuesday. On Tuesday morning the best price about Abdi-Wali was 1/16. Today that has gone, with Betfair Sportsbook and Sky Bet both cutting her from 1/16 to 1/25 and BoyleSports moving from 1/25 to 1/33. Most firms now go 1/25 to 1/41, and Spreadex, Star Sports and Sporting Index are the shortest at 1/50.
- The Green price has gone the other way at the bottom of the market. On Tuesday Polanski was as short as 15/2. This morning Betfair Sportsbook pushed him out from 15/2 to 10/1, and Sky Bet went from 15/2 to 11/1. His best price is now 16/1 with Star Sports and AK Bets, up from 13/1 on Tuesday. That leaves the rest of the market at 10/1 to 12/1.
Green vote share odds
Ladbrokes and Coral price up Polanski's share of the vote. The 25–29.99% band is the favourite at 2/1, with 30–34.99% the second favourite at 9/4 and 20–24.99% at 4/1. A Green share of 35–39.99% is 5/1, 40–44.99% is 9/1 and 45% or more is 20/1. Under 15% is 25/1.
Final days of the Holborn and St Pancras campaign
The final week has been dominated by the fallout from the Green Party conference, where a motion describing Zionism as racism passed by 1,022 votes to 813 on 4 October. Polanski did not take part in the vote. More than a dozen Labour MPs have since reported the party to the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC), which said it would consider each complaint carefully. A group of Labour MPs has also written to Sussex Police, which said it was reviewing the letter.
Abdi-Wali, the leader of Camden Council, said voters had raised the motion with her "literally at the school gates", adding: "I think it's worrying for anyone who believes in a two-state solution."
The Metropolitan Police is also treating as an antisemitic hate crime an assault in Queen Square, Holborn, on Tuesday night. A man was attacked after he challenged two men who were stencilling graffiti targeting Abdi-Wali.
On polling day, Burnham told voters: "Today, hope can win. But only if you vote for it. I have no doubt that Sagal Abdi-Wali will make a brilliant local MP for Holborn and St Pancras."
Polanski, who sent a handwritten eve-of-poll letter to households asking voters to lend him their vote, said: "The election is looking close today. We already have a Labour government, a Labour council and a Labour mayor. Isn't it time for a Green voice for Camden to push Labour to do better?"
Galloway has run the Workers Party campaign from abroad, in what he calls self-exile. Reform's Peter Newman, the Conservatives' Ewan Cameron and Liberal Democrat Patrick Thomas Stillman are among the 15 candidates on the ballot.
When is the Holborn and St Pancras result?
Voting runs until 10pm at around 30 polling stations, and voters need photo ID. Anyone in the queue at 10pm can still vote. The count takes place overnight, so the result is expected in the early hours of Friday 9 October. Camden Council has not yet confirmed a declaration time. No exit poll is expected.
