Zack Polanski's leadership of the Green Party is currently facing its most severe period of pressure and uncertainty since he took office.
Adrian Ramsay is the favourite to be the next leader of the Green Party, according to a market priced up today as Zack Polanski faces the toughest week of his leadership. Ramsay is 5/2, with Ellie Chowns the second favourite at 7/2 and Carla Denyer the third favourite at 5/1.
The market opened at lunchtime on Thursday, while voters in Holborn and St Pancras were still at the polls.
Polanski is the Green candidate in the by-election, where Labour went into polling day as heavy odds-on favourites. It also follows a bruising conference, where members backed a motion describing Zionism as racism against the wishes of most of the party's MPs.
Polanski has insisted that his position "doesn't depend on" the by-election "whatsoever". The next scheduled leadership ballot is not due until summer 2027.
He is currently 10/3 to exit the party in 2026 and 1/5 to be in 2027 or later.
Next Green Party Leader Odds
Who is the favourite to become the Next Green Party leader?
| Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| Adrian Ramsay | 5/2 |
| Ellie Chowns | 7/2 |
| Carla Denyer | 5/1 |
| Hannah Spencer | 6/1 |
| Mothin Ali | 6/1 |
| Rachel Millward | 7/1 |
| Siân Berry | 10/1 |
| Hamza Chowdhury | 10/1 |
| Anthony Slaughter | 20/1 |
| Zoe Garbett | 20/1 |
| Caroline Lucas | 20/1 |
| Natalie Bennett | 25/1 |
| Frank Adlington-Stringer | 33/1 |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and correct as of 15:08 BST, Thursday 8 October. https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-green-party-leader
Ramsay heads the betting just over a year after he lost to Polanski. The MP for Waveney Valley, who led the party with Denyer from 2021 to 2025, stood on a joint ticket with Chowns in the 2025 contest. Polanski beat them with 84.1% of the vote, 20,411 to 3,705, and the result was declared on 2 September 2025.
Ramsay has been openly critical since conference. Asked this week whether he could leave the party over the Zionism motion, he said he was "not ruling anything in or out", adding: "If I was in Zack's position I would have made a different decision." He has since said: "To be clear, I have no intention of leaving the Green Party. I am urgently working with colleagues to get the party back on track."
Ellie Chowns and Carla Denyer odds
Chowns, the MP for North Herefordshire, is the second favourite at 7/2. She spoke against the motion and said afterwards she was "deeply saddened" that it passed, calling the party's policy-making process "clearly not fit for purpose".
Denyer, the MP for Bristol Central and Ramsay's former co-leader, is 5/1. Before the vote she warned: "I do not believe that passing this motion would move us forward. I worry that it could set us back."
Gorton and Denton MP Hannah Spencer, who won the seat at a by-election in February, is 6/1. So is deputy leader Mothin Ali, the only senior figure to publicly back the motion. Ali has dismissed talk of a challenge, saying: "Polanski is my friend and has my support." Fellow deputy leader Rachel Millward is 7/1, and Brighton Pavilion MP and former co-leader Siân Berry is 10/1.
How the Green Party leadership works
The Green Party elects its leader every two years in a postal ballot of all members, and two candidates can stand together as co-leaders. Polanski's term runs to a ballot in summer 2027. An earlier contest would need Polanski to stand down, a recall petition signed by 10% of members, or a two-thirds vote of the Green Party Council.
With more than 230,000 members, a recall petition would be a major undertaking. The party's polling has also slipped from its summer highs. It was on 11% in YouGov's latest poll and 8% with Survation in early October.
The Holborn and St Pancras result is expected in the early hours of Friday. Polanski has called the seat "probably 50/50", although the betting has never agreed with him.
