Abdul El-Sayed is the 1/3 favourite to win Michigan's Senate race for the Democrats in Tuesday's US midterms.
Michigan is the Senate race Republicans most want to flip on Tuesday. Gary Peters is retiring, so the seat is open. It's also the only Democratic-held seat among Cook Political Report's seven toss-ups. If Mike Rogers wins, the Democrats' path to a net gain of four seats gets narrow.
Bookmakers don't expect him to win, though. Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee. He's a 42-year-old epidemiologist and the former Detroit health director, and he has shortened right through the final week. Haley Stevens, whom he beat in the primary, endorsed Rogers on Sunday, but the market barely flinched.
Michigan Senate Odds
Best vs Worst Odds
| Selection | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat (Abdul El-Sayed) | 1/3 | BoyleSports | 30/100 |
| Republican (Mike Rogers) | 7/2 | Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power | 21/10 |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and correct as of 15:17 GMT, Monday 2 November. See the full Michigan Senate election market on Oddschecker.
Who Is the Favourite in the Michigan Senate Race?
The Democrats are favourites at a best price of 1/3, which implies roughly a 75% chance. Most bookmakers are shorter at 1/5, which implies about 83%. The Republicans are 7/2 at best, about 22%.
Oddschecker's bet history shows how far the market has moved. Betfred had the Democrats at 4/9 in mid-July. They drifted to 4/6 in early August after a bruising primary, then came back in to about 1/3 by late September. After easing to 4/11–2/5 in mid-October, they have shortened steadily since 28 October. Rogers has gone the other way, from 13/8 in July to as big as 7/2 now.
The polls explain the move. The final New York Times/Siena poll had El-Sayed ahead 53–42 among likely voters, compared with 49–44 in September. YouGov, CNN/SSRS and Rasmussen all have him ahead by between four and seven points. The 270toWin average puts him on 50.9% to Rogers' 44.6%.
Michigan Senate Race: The Stevens Endorsement
El-Sayed won the August primary by fewer than 15,000 votes, after more than $30m from AIPAC-linked groups was spent backing Stevens. The relationship then fell apart. El-Sayed's campaign disinvited her from a joint event after a row over an outside group's ad about Israel. On Sunday she attended a Detroit church service with Rogers and endorsed him.
The fallout landed mostly on Stevens. Chuck Schumer called it "a despicable betrayal". The Michigan Democratic Party chair said she is no longer a party member, and her chief of staff resigned. El-Sayed brushed it off, saying: "At the end of the day, I actually don't think about Haley Stevens." The Times/Siena fieldwork finished before the endorsement, so the market is betting the damage will be limited.
Michigan Senate Race Ratings and History
The forecasters are more cautious than the bookmakers. Cook still rates the race a Toss-up, Sabato's Crystal Ball has it as Leans Democrat, and Inside Elections has it as Tilt Democrat.
History favours the Democrats, since no Republican has won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994. But the state is tight. Rogers lost to Elissa Slotkin by about 19,000 votes in 2024, the same year Donald Trump carried Michigan by less than two points.
When Is the Michigan Senate Result?
Most polling stations close at 8pm local time, which is 01:00 GMT on Wednesday 4 November. Four Upper Peninsula counties close an hour later. A clear call is possible overnight if El-Sayed matches his polling. A close count could run into Wednesday, and a margin of 0.1% or less triggers an automatic recount.
