Democrats are 1/3 favourites to win control of the Senate in Tuesday's US midterms.
The US midterms are tomorrow, and the betting says Democrats are likely to take back the Senate. Republicans go into polling day with 53 seats to the Democrats' 47, including the two independents who vote with the Democrats. That means Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. A 50-50 split would leave Republicans in control, because Vice President JD Vance casts the deciding vote.
That's a big task in any year, but this one leans towards Democrats. Their lead on the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they'd back for Congress, is around eight points. Donald Trump's approval rating is just 32% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll. Republicans are also defending 22 of the 35 seats up, compared with 13 for Democrats.
US Midterms Senate Control Odds
Best vs Worst Odds
| Selection | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 1/3 | Boylesports, BetGoodwin, BetAhoy, BetTom, AK Bets | 2/7 |
| Republicans | 5/2 | Spreadex, Sporting Index | 7/4 |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and correct as of 10:07 GMT, Monday 2 November 2026. See the full Senate control odds on Oddschecker.
Who's Favourite to Win Senate Control at the US Midterms?
Democrats are the favourites for Senate control, at a best price of 1/3. That gives them an implied chance of about 75%, or as high as 78% at Spreadex and Sporting Index's 2/7. The Republicans' best price of 5/2 implies a chance of about 29%, although Betway has them at 7/4.
The betting has moved against Republicans overnight. On Oddschecker's bet history, BetGoodwin, BetAhoy and BetTom all had them at 7/4 just after midnight, and all three had moved out to 19/10 by the morning. Most bookmakers now have Democrats somewhere between 2/7 and 4/11.
The bookmakers are roughly in line with the forecast models. Nate Silver's latest projection gives Democrats around a 3-in-4 chance of winning the Senate.
Senate Control Odds: The Key Battleground Races
The Cook Political Report rates seven races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. With North Carolina likely to flip to Democrats, the party that wins most of those seven should control the Senate.
Maine and Texas are seen as the races that will decide the majority. In Maine, Republican Susan Collins is defending her seat against Troy Jackson. In Texas, Ken Paxton beat John Cornyn for the Republican nomination and now faces James Talarico in a state Democrats last won in a Senate race decades ago. Michigan is the one toss-up Democrats are defending, and it became messier at the weekend when Democratic congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed.
When Will We Know Who Controls the Senate?
The first polls close at 23:00 GMT on Tuesday. Maine, Michigan and most of Texas close at 01:00 GMT on Wednesday, followed by Iowa at 02:00 and Alaska at 05:00. Control could still be unsettled for a while. Alaska and Maine both use ranked-choice voting, so a close count there could take days, or until 18 November in Alaska's case. Georgia holds a runoff on 1 December if no candidate reaches 50%.
US Midterms House Odds
Democrats are even bigger favourites to win the House, where they need a net gain of three seats. Star Sports is the only bookmaker pricing Democrat seat totals, and its favourite band is 238–241 seats at 11/2.
