Jon Ossoff has been cut to favourite to be the next US president after the Democrats' midterm wins, while the Trump exit date market has also moved.
Democrats have been projected to win both the House and the Senate in yesterday's midterms. The result changes how the next two years of Donald Trump's presidency look and moves the betting on who succeeds him in 2028. Bookmakers have reacted fast. JD Vance, who has been tied closely to Trump's fortunes, has drifted. Georgia senator Jon Ossoff has been cut to favourite with most firms.
There's also an early-exit market on Trump. Trump turned 80 in June, his approval rating is in the low 30s in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, and a Democratic Congress brings the prospect of investigations and impeachment efforts. The market on when he leaves office has moved too.
Next US President Odds
Best vs Worst Odds
| Selection | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 13/2 | QuinnBet | 10/3 |
| JD Vance | 6/1 | bet365, Betfred, Betfair, StarSports, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 7/2 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 7/1 | Betfred, Betfair, StarSports, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 11/2 |
| Gavin Newsom | 8/1 | Betfred, Ladbrokes, StarSports, Coral | 6/1 |
| Marco Rubio | 10/1 | Betfred, Ladbrokes, StarSports, Coral | 6/1 |
| Donald Trump | 16/1 | StarSports | 16/1 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 25/1 | bet365, William Hill, Unibet, Betfred, StarSports, BoyleSports, QuinnBet | 18/1 |
| Josh Shapiro | 33/1 | QuinnBet | 14/1 |
| Kamala Harris | 33/1 | Betfred, StarSports | 16/1 |
| Ron DeSantis | 33/1 | BetVictor, QuinnBet | 12/1 |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and correct as of 11:20 GMT, Wednesday 4 November. See the full 2028 US presidential election market on Oddschecker.
Who Is the Favourite to Be the Next US President?
Ossoff is 7/2 with bet365, William Hill, Betfred, Betfair, Sky Bet and Paddy Power, an implied chance of about 22%. QuinnBet's 13/2 is well above any other price. Oddschecker bet history shows bet365 cut him from 9/2 to 7/2 this morning.
Vance is the second favourite. William Hill still has him at 7/2, level with Ossoff, but most firms go 5/1 or 6/1. The best price of 6/1 implies about 14%. Bet365 and Betfred both pushed him out from 11/2 to 6/1 this morning.
The top two are close, so neither is a clear favourite. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is third favourite at a best 7/1, ahead of Gavin Newsom at 8/1 and Marco Rubio at 10/1.
Why the 2028 Election Odds Have Moved
No major candidate has formally declared yet. Vance has said he and his wife Usha would discuss a run after the midterms. A heavy Republican defeat puts Trump's vice president in an awkward spot. Democratic hopefuls had a good night. Josh Shapiro was re-elected as governor of Pennsylvania and JB Pritzker won a third term in Illinois.
Newsom leads Vance and Rubio in the head-to-head polling averages, but only narrowly. He has also said he won't run if Kamala Harris does. Trump is still priced at 16/1 with StarSports, even though the 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice.
Trump Exit Date Odds
Best vs Worst Odds
| Year Trump leaves office | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2029 or later | 8/15 | StarSports | 1/2 |
| 2027 | 7/2 | Ladbrokes, BetGoodwin, BetAhoy, Coral, BetTom | 5/2 |
| 2028 | 6/1 | William Hill, StarSports | 11/2 |
| 2026 | 14/1 | Ladbrokes, StarSports, BetGoodwin, BetAhoy, Coral, BetTom | 8/1 |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and correct as of 11:20 GMT, Wednesday 4 November. See the full Trump exit date market on Oddschecker.
When Will Trump Leave Office?
Trump's term ends at noon on 20 January 2029. That means “2029 or later” is effectively a bet that he serves his full term. It's still the favourite at 8/15, about 65%, but William Hill had it at 2/5 at Monday's close.
The bigger move is 2027, which William Hill has cut from 4/1 to 5/2. That's about 22% at the best price of 7/2. Democrats in the House have signalled possible impeachment efforts, but removing a president needs a two-thirds vote in the Senate. That's well beyond the Democrats' expected majority there.
