Donald Trump has been cut to 1/4 to be impeached for a third time after the Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the midterms.
Democrats have won both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's midterms. Bookmakers now make a third impeachment of Donald Trump a strong odds-on chance. When the new House sits in January, a simple majority is all it will take to impeach him. A Democratic majority will also bring subpoena power and committee chairs ready to use it.
Impeaching and removing Trump are very different things, though. Conviction in the Senate needs 67 votes, and Democrats look set to have around 54.
Trump Impeachment Odds
Best Odds
| Selection | Odds | Bookmakers |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1/4 | William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral |
| No | 11/4 | William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and correct as of 11:25 GMT, Wednesday 4 November. See the full Will Donald Trump Be Impeached? market on Oddschecker.
Will Donald Trump Be Impeached? Latest Odds Explained
At 1/4, “Yes” implies about an 80% chance of a third impeachment. At Monday's close it was 4/7 with William Hill and Ladbrokes and 4/6 with Coral, roughly 60–64%. Oddschecker bet history shows all three firms cutting it this morning, once the results were in.
“No” has gone the other way. It has drifted from 5/4 with William Hill and 13/10 with Ladbrokes to 11/4, about 27%.
Trump Impeachment Odds After the Midterms
Democratic leaders haven't committed to impeaching Trump, and their first focus looks like investigations. Hakeem Jeffries, who is expected to become Speaker, has promised to target what he calls “unprecedented corruption”. At an October rally he said that “one of the first things we're going to do in the majority, we're going to run Pete Hegseth out of town”. That points to the defense secretary being impeached before the president.
Jamie Raskin, who is set to chair the Judiciary Committee, has been more open about it. “We're not afraid to impeach Donald Trump,” he said. “We've done it twice. He has 50% of all the presidential impeachments in American history.”
Trump has made light of the threat. “I've become very good at beating them in impeachment,” he told a rally in Oklahoma before polling day.
When Could Trump Be Impeached?
The new Congress is sworn in on 3 January 2027. Until then, the Republican-controlled House is still in charge, and it has already blocked several attempts. In December 2025, the House voted 237–140 to table Al Green's articles of impeachment, with many Democrats voting with Republicans to set them aside.
Trump was impeached in December 2019 over Ukraine and again in January 2021 after the Capitol riot. The Senate acquitted him both times. The closest it came was 57–43 in February 2021, still 10 votes short of the two-thirds needed.
Will Trump Complete His Second Term? Odds
Trump to complete his second term is 8/15 with StarSports and 1/2 with William Hill. That's about 65–67%, down from 2/5 with William Hill at Monday's close. “No” is 6/4 with William Hill, a 40% chance. Even with a Democratic Senate, the market makes him a solid favourite to stay in office until January 2029.
