Stu Williams explains why the best group of pass catchers assembled by the Chiefs puts NFL MVP second favourite Patrick Mahomes in a perfect position to defy the doubters.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way…
The New England Patriots weren’t supposed to defeat the ‘Greatest Show On Turf’ (St Louis Rams) in Super Bowl XXXVI and the New York Giants weren’t supposed to deny Tom Brady another ring in Super Bowl XLI after the Patriots won all 16 of their regular season games.
Kurt Warner wasn’t supposed to sign with the Rams and twice be named MVP after going undrafted five years earlier. While the aforementioned Brady wasn’t supposed to win seven Super Bowl rings after being selected with the 199th overall pick in 2000.
The quarterback in question here wasn’t supposed to become the second youngest quarterback ever to win a Super Bowl in his second season as a starter and return to the main event 12 months later.
He wasn’t supposed be named both MVP and Super Bowl MVP within his first two years as a starter, break the record for the most 400+ yards and 5+ touchdown games in NFL history after four years as a starter and he most certainly wasn’t supposed to get the Chiefs into field goal range with just 13 seconds left on the clock against the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round last January.
The quarterback in question is clearly Patrick Mahomes (best price 9/1 in the latest MVP odds for the regular NFL season). According to some, he’s supposed to struggle now that star wideout Tyreek Hill has been traded to the Miami Dolphins.
It’s natural and indeed understandable for that thought to cross your mind as Hill is unquestionably one of the most unique and impactful wide receivers in the NFL. It goes without saying that losing a weapon of that nature is no positive; however, it’s not necessarily the crushing blow that many would have you believe.
Mahomes boasts a passer rating of 103.1 with 1,737 yards, eight touchdowns and just one interception in five career games without Hill. That’s an average of 347.4 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game, which goes some way to dispelling the notion that the former Texas Tech gunslinger will fall apart without the ‘Cheetah’.
Furthermore, Mahomes went 18 of 26 for 222 yards, three touchdowns, 0 interceptions and a passer rating of 133.8 in just three preseason drives. Yes, it’s only preseason and you would be a fool to get carried away with these statistics. However, it does demonstrate that the 2018 MVP winner has already built solid chemistry with his new-look receiving core.
What does this new Chiefs offence look like?
Chiefs GM Brett Veach is gaining a reputation for pulling rabbits out of hats – let’s not forget that he rebuilt the Chiefs Offensive line last offseason and they’re now one of the best in the league – and he made a very smart move when deciding which route to take post Hill.
He wasted little time in recruiting free agents JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling before adding further spice with second round rookie Skyy Moore, and early indications suggest it was a gamble that will pay off.
All three decided to join Mahomes in Texas – alongside fellow new face Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman and other members of the Chiefs pass catching crew – to work out and build chemistry before heading back to Kansas for OTA’s and training camp, and their subsequent displays suggest it was time very well spent.
While Travis Kelce will likely command the most targets this year as he bids for a remarkable seventh consecutive season with over 1000 yards, the chemistry with Smith-Schuster, who put up 1426 yards in his second year with the Steelers and looks poised for a comeback year as Mahomes’ WR1, has been clear for all to see.
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Valdes-Scantling, meanwhile, who recorded the second fastest sprint speed in the NFL last season (22.09mph) and is statistically one of the most dangerous deep threats in the league, has also appeared to be on the same page as the Chiefs signal caller.
While Moore, who had the biggest hands of any wide receiver at the combine and has already displayed his talent and versatility – something that offensive mastermind Andy Reid will undoubtedly look to exploit – and Justin Watson, who has impressed Mahomes since day one in Texas and has been the darling of beat reporters in Kansas City all summer, bring untapped potential and could easily play very significant roles in this offence.
Factor in Hardman, who is in a contract year and has been handed many of the routes that Hill carved out, and the returning Jody Fortson, who registered five targets and five receptions for 47 yards and two touchdowns before rupturing his Achilles tendon last year and it’s hard not to get excited about the depth of this Chiefs offence.
Indeed, it’s very easy to make a case that Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling, Hardman, Moore, Watson and a healthy Fortson is a superior group to Kelce, Hill, Hardman, Pringle, and Robinson in 2021, plus there’s the added bonus of defences not knowing where the ball is going, as Hill naturally commanded the largest target share and teams had become accustomed to deploying a two high shell in an attempt to stop Mahomes and Hill connecting with big plays.
The Mahomes cheat sheet for unlocking defences
Yes, Mahomes struggled with the two high shell looks early last year as the NFL chose to copy the blueprint of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl 55 success in an attempt to slow down the Chiefs offence. However, in the long term, it provided Mahomes with a cheat sheet and taught him the valuable lessons of patience and taking what the defence gives him.
In essence, the NFL came up with a new way of playing to stop Mahomes, but it only served to make the Chiefs signal caller a smarter and more well-rounded quarterback.
That’s simply got to be worrying given what Mahomes has achieved in his four years as a starter.
Former first round running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire could experience a break-out year following a clear run in preseason (he had surgery last year and lost significant weight) and the Chiefs may have unearthed a gem in the form of seventh round running back Isiah Pacheco. Veteran back Jerick McKinnon also showed his worth in the postseason.
All three are fantastic receivers and can add another dimension to the Chiefs offence.
Mahomes ranks first in passing yards (18,991), pass completions (1550), passer rating (105.8) and interceptions thrown (37) in NFL history through 63 starts, while only Dan Marino betters his 151 passing touchdowns. That means he’s had a better start to his career than Brady, Aaron Rogers and all that went before them, and look what they’ve gone on to achieve subsequently.
Many will call last season a down year; however, he still posted better numbers than Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who is the bookmakers favourite to win MVP this season, and Mahomes will enter this year with arguably the strongest group of pass catchers that he has ever had and the valuable lessons learnt last year locked away under his helmet.
Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs have a tough schedule this year and while many will be quick to identify that as a negative, I would counter that it provides Mahomes with the opportunity to display his talent against the best the league has to offer, and if he showcases the magic that we’ve seen over the last four years then go ahead and grab the popcorn, because it’s going to be quite the show.
A chance to disprove the doubters
Another factor that shouldn’t be overlooked is mentality. Mahomes is a competitor. He’s a winner. He simply loves to prove people wrong. And he’s got the opportunity to prove plenty of people wrong this year.
Roll the clock back nine months and some were claiming that he’d been found out. Some will point to the second half of the AFC Championship Game against the Bengals and it was recently revealed that Mahomes placed eighth in the NFL Top 100.
Not to mention a Defensive Coordinator who commented: “Take his first read away, what does he do? He runs, he scrambles and he plays streetball.”
If you ever wanted to add fuel to the fire that burns within Mahomes, then comments such as these are the way to do it. You can bet your last penny that the former MVP has heard and seen each and every comment made about him this offseason and will be firmly focussed on making those who commented look foolish.
Mahomes is a humble man who always shows respect no matter what the situation. However, if you wonder just how much Mahomes believes in his own ability then this little titbit may point you in the right direction.
He wore a heart rate monitor during the Chiefs AFC Divisional game against the Buffalo Bills and it’s interesting to note that his heart rate was higher when off the field watching on, and lower when he was on the field with the ball in his hands – when he himself could affect the outcome.
This is also true of the 13 seconds in which Mahomes drove the Chiefs into field goal range. He’s clearly a cool customer who knows exactly what he’s capable of.
One final point to note is that the Chiefs have also spent time and draft capital on improving their defence. Veach used seven of his 10 draft picks on defensive players including first round cornerback Trent McDuffie, first round defensive end George Karlaftis, second round Safety Bryan Cook and third round linebacker Leo Chenal.
Why is this relevant? Well, quite simply, the more stops the Chiefs defence get, the more Mahomes gets the ball in his hands, giving him more opportunities to shine and put points on the board.
The Chiefs signal caller is an MVP candidate every year given his resume; however, in a year where he’s got a point to prove and the best group of pass catchers that the Chiefs have assembled since he landed in Kansas City, the NFL better watch out.
*Statistical sources: StatMuse, CBS
Regular Season MVP Winner Odds:
| Name | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 7/1 | 6/1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 9/1 | 15/2 |
| Tom Brady | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| Justin Herbert | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 11/1 | 17/2 |
| Joe Burrow | 14/1 | 12/1 |
*For the full grid of prices on oddschecker, click HERE.
