One bookmaker makes it close to 50% likely that we'll get snow in Scotland on Christmas Day, but what about south of the border?
The first snap of cold weather in mid-November across the UK had people dreaming about a White Christmas in 2024. Now we are just a week out from the big day, how likely is it to happen?
Major UK cities including Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Newcastle could see snow on the 25th December according to experts, suggesting it is much likelier the further north you go.
Bookmakers on oddschecker have been maintaining prices for a number of major UK cities and their chance of snow on Christmas Day. For the purpose of the White Christmas betting market, this is determined by whether there is snowfall recorded in each city’s respective airport.
What are the chances of a White Christmas in the UK?
There is a strong chance that we will have a White Christmas in 2024 at least in some parts of the UK according to BetVictor's 11/10 odds (48% chance) of snow in Aberdeen on the big day (11/8 best price on William Hill) - implied 42% chance.
In total, eight of the UK's biggest airports are given a greater than 10% chance of snow even at best price through oddschecker (odds of 9/1 or shorter).
Market leader Aberbeen is followed by Glasgow and Edinburgh (both 30% at odds of 9/4) as the next likeliest as reports suggest Scotland could face a lot of snow over the Christmas period.
Moving south, Newcastle is the likeliest of the English cities with a shortest price of 7/4 on Ladbrokes (36% chance) and a best price of 3/1 on Star Sports (25%).
Over in Ireland, Belfast has a 17% chance at odds of 5/1 on William Hill, while BetVictor make it a 9/4 chance. The other three UK cities with a greater than 10% chance of snow on Christmas Day are Leeds (7/1), Manchester (8/1) and Liverpool (9/1).
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What defines a White Christmas?
The Met Office defines a White Christmas as at least one snowflake being observed falling anywhere in the UK within the 24 hours of 25th December. It’s not about snow settling, just being observed, which means the odds reflect this broader definition.
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When was the last official White Christmas in the UK?
Historically, the actual occurrence of a “widespread” White Christmas remains rare, with the last official one recorded in 2021, when lying snow was reported in 83% of weather stations.
Leon Blackman from oddschecker said: “As we move closer to the big day, anticipation for a White Christmas is still high; Aberdeen currently leads the betting markets as the most likely spot to see snow on Christmas Day.
"While locations further south like London and Cardiff have much slimmer odds, it’s worth noting that snow can often surprise us when it comes to festive weather."
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White Christmas Odds
| Location | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 11/8 | 42% |
| Edinburgh | 9/4 | 31% |
| Glasgow | 9/4 | 31% |
| Newcastle | 3/1 | 25% |
| Belfast | 5/1 | 17% |
| Leeds | 7/1 | 13% |
| Manchester | 8/1 | 11% |
| Liverpool | 9/1 | 10% |
| Birmingham | 10/1 | 9% |
