Carlos Alcaraz's US Open title defence ended in brutal fashion, edged out by Ben Shelton in a five-set epic that finished at 3.33am, the latest conclusion in tournament history.
The eighth seed's 6-7 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6 win, secured after four hours and 28 minutes, was the first top-three scalp of his career after 17 previous attempts.
Shelton now meets Frances Tiafoe in Friday's semi-final, with the American guaranteeing his country a first men's finalist since 2003. Here's how the outright odds have shifted, and what the results mean for the second week in New York.
US Open Winner Odds
Who is favourite to win the US Open?
Alexander Zverev sits atop the market at 5/4 having avoided the carnage that has claimed both Alcaraz. With the world number two now the highest-ranked player left in the draw following Alcaraz's exit, the market has consolidated around him as the "path of least resistance" pick, though a 5/4 shot in a four-man semi-final field is far from a stone-cold certainty, and his own Grand Slam final record (0-6) is a stat that punters weighing this price should factor in.
Shelton sits at 28/17, a price that looks generous given the manner of his win over the defending champion, but reflects uncertainty about how his body recovers after a match that finished in the small hours. Physical toll is a real consideration here: four hours and 28 minutes of five-set tennis, capped by a match tie-break, is a heavy outlay two days before a semi-final against an in-form Tiafoe.
Tiafoe himself is at 15/2 despite reaching a third US Open semi-final, a return only matched this century by Andre Agassi. His own five-set comeback from two sets down against Alex Michelsen carries similar fatigue questions, and bettors weighing value in this market may find his price more attractive than Shelton's given the quality he showed in the fourth and fifth sets.
Khachanov, Blockx and Van de Zandschulp round out the field at longer odds
US Open Results
Ben Shelton bt Carlos Alcaraz 6-7 (5-7) 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6 (10-7)
Shelton lost the opening tie-break after squandering a 6-5 lead, then reeled off nine straight games to seize control of the second and third sets. Alcaraz, playing just his fifth match back from a four-month wrist injury, fought back to level at two sets apiece, even being sick into a towel during a changeover from the physical exertion. The decider went to a deciding tie-break, where Alcaraz built a 5-3 cushion before Shelton won five of the next six points, closing it out with a 146mph ace.
Frances Tiafoe bt Alex Michelsen 5-7 3-6 7-5 6-3 7-6 (10-6)
Tiafoe looked finished at two sets down and two points from defeat in the third, with Michelsen, an unseeded 22-year-old chasing the biggest win of his career, serving for a two-set lead. Michelsen's nerves showed at exactly the wrong moment: back-to-back double faults let Tiafoe level the third set, and the momentum never fully returned to the Californian. Tiafoe erased an early deficit in the deciding tie-break to seal victory after four hours and 38 minutes, a result that lifts him back into the world's top ten.
Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx - 20:30 Wednesday
Zverev vs B. van de Zandschulp - 00:30 Thursday
Alcaraz vs Shelton Reaction
The result reverberated well beyond the two players involved. Alcaraz had arrived at Flushing Meadows with the best win percentage in US Open history among the professional era's leading men, having won 28 of his 31 matches at the tournament, and was chasing a fourth New York semi-final in five years. He also carried an 18-match unbeaten run at Grand Slam level into the contest, a streak that made his exit, after just his fifth match back from a four-month wrist lay-off, one of the more startling upsets of the fortnight rather than a routine loss.
For American tennis, the significance runs deeper than one result. Shelton's win guarantees the US a men's finalist for the first time since Andy Roddick lifted the trophy in 2003, and with Tiafoe also through, the country has its first all-domestic US Open men's semi-final pairing in years. Shelton was less than a year old when Roddick won his title, underlining how long the drought has run. His victory also ends a personal hoodoo against top-three opposition that had stood at 0-17 coming into Tuesday night.
Tiafoe's comeback carries its own historical weight: reaching a third US Open semi-final places him alongside Andre Agassi as the only American men to do so this century, and returns him to the world's top ten for the first time in three years. Taken together, the two results mark one of the most dramatic days of the tournament, two former champions and top seeds eliminated in extraordinary five-set comebacks, and a home nation guaranteed its first male Grand Slam finalist in over two decades.
