Keely Hodgkinson has been the long-term favourite with the bookmakers to win the 2024 BBC Sports Personality of the Year.
The odds of 2/9 in some places suggest it is more than 80% likely that 800m Olympic champion Keely Hodgkinson will be crowned BBC Sports Personality of the Year for 2024 on Tuesday night. Even at the best price of 2/7 on William Hill, she is given a 78% chance of lifting the trophy.
Despite a late bit of betting interest for darts sensation Luke Littler (shortest 11/4) and a slight wavering of confidence in Hodgkinson’s chances from the bookmakers (she was 1/8 in mid-November), here’s five reasons why she will not be denied.
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Athletics leads the way
In the history of Sports Personality of the Year, athletes account for the most amount of winners (18), the most amount of second places (14) and the most amount of third places (21).
In total, the 53 top three finishers for athletes since the first iteration of the award in 1954 is 29 better than the next most successful sport – football with 24. Formula One (18), cricket (13), swimming and tennis (both 11) are the only others with more than 10.
Women on the charge
The last three winners of the award have been women – Mary Earps (2023), Beth Mead (2022) and Emma Raducanu (2021). Raducanu’s win in 2021 sparked a complete turnaround given that no woman had won the award since Zara Phillips in 2006.
Darts often fails to hit the spot
Littler’s story to the top of darts is something of an anomaly, but despite its popularity (and particularly at this time of year) Phil Taylor is the only darts player to have finished in the top three (2nd in 2010).
And remember ‘The Power’ is a 16-time world champion – earlier in the year he finished 2nd in Sports Personality behind AP McCoy he had landed his 15th title.
The power of the Olympics
The winners and top three finishers obviously correlates with the sporting calendar, none more so than for Olympians challenging for the award after the games.
Since 2000 (won by Steve Redgrave), 15 of the 18 top three finishers in Olympic years have been participants in the games. In fact, the only exceptions are Raducanu in 2021 (Covid delayed Tokyo 2020), Lewis Hamilton in 2008 (first world title) and Andrew Flintoff in 2004.
Littler missing the crowning moment
While hugely impressive, Littler is not yet a world champion. He may well be one in just over two weeks’ time (1996 world darts champion Steve Beaton thinks so) but for the time being he is yet to rule the world in the same way that Keely Hodgkinson managed in Paris.
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SPOTY Odds
| SPOTY Winner | Best Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Keely Hodgkinson | 2/7 | 77.8% |
| Luke Littler | 3/1 | 25% |
| Alex Yee | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Joe Root | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Jude Bellingham | 150/1 | 0.7% |
| Sarah Storey | 150/1 | 0.7% |
