What were the odds of last year's Eurovision winner and what does that mean for the 2025 entries.
The Eurovision Song Contest 2025, the 69th edition of the world’s largest music competition, is set to take place in Basel, Switzerland, at the St. Jakobshalle arena.
Scheduled for May 13 and 15 for the semi-finals and May 17 for the grand final, the event follows Switzerland’s victory in 2024 with Nemo’s song “The Code.”
The victory was Switzerland’s third Eurovision win and its first since 1988, earning Nemo a place in history as the first non-binary winner.
However, Nemo’s path to victory was not always seen as a sure bet. Switzerland was not the favourite for much of the pre-contest period.
Here’s a breakdown of the 2024 winning odds for Nemo and how they evolved.
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Eurovision odds for last year's winners
| Date | Event | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2023 | Markets Open | 30/1 | 3.2% |
| 29/02/2024 | Nemo releases 'The Code' | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| 05/03/2024 | Four days after song releases | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| 01/04/2024 | Nemo performed “The Code” for the first time live | 3/1 (Favourite) | 25% |
| 07/05/2024 | Semi-Final 1 | 4/1 | 20% |
| 09/05/2024 | Semi-Final 2 | 3/1 | 25% |
| 11/05/2024 | Final | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Although Switzerland began the Eurovision 2024 as 30/1 outsiders, it didn’t take punters long to spot the potential of Nemo.
Chosen to represent their country after a rigorous selection process - starting with over 400 songs, narrowed down to just five, and ultimately one - Nemo quickly emerged as a serious contender at 12/1 just four days after releasing 'The Code'.
They entered April as the favourites to win at 3/1 and despite dipping to third favourite (5/1) before the final, Nemo ended up delivering on early promise by winning.
This continued the trend in which the winner has emerged from the top of the betting five out of the last six years when looking at the odds in late March/early April.
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Currently, Sweden are favourites to win at 6/5 with Bet Victor and occupied top spot in March and April too.
There’s certainly still hope for punters hunting value in the Eurovision markets, as the odds haven’t always been the most reliable predictor of success.
In recent years, there have been several standout surprises - like Fuego in 2018, who was priced as high as 100/1 in March before finishing runner-up, and Moldova in 2022, who jumped from 25th in the odds to 7th place on the night.
Even as recently as 2024, Portugal defied a pre-show ranking of 35th to finish in the top 10, while Belgium - 6th favourite - failed to make the final.
