The Mercury Prize will be announced this evening - who is in the running and how have the bookmakers priced it?
Olivia Dean is favourite to win the 2026 Mercury Prize, which will be awarded in Newcastle tonight. The Art of Loving has already won album of the year at the BRITs and the MOBOs, and it is the biggest seller on the shortlist.
The bookmakers aren't sure about her, though. The Mercury is judged by a panel of musicians, critics and broadcasters who pick the winner on the night, and favourites have a habit of losing.
Last year's favourite, CMAT, lost to Sam Fender, and in 2016 Skepta beat David Bowie, who had been the clear favourite. That helps explain why only so little separate the top three this morning.
Mercury Prize 2026 Odds
| Selection | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Dean – The Art of Loving | 18/5 | Unibet | 11/4 |
| Nia Archives – Emotional Junglist | 5/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 7/2 |
| RAYE – THIS MUSIC MAY CONTAIN HOPE. | 6/1 | William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral | 5/1 |
| Dove Ellis – Blizzard | 17/2 | Unibet | 4/1 |
| Florence + The Machine – Everybody Scream | 10/1 | William Hill, Ladbrokes, 10bet, Coral | 7/1 |
| Dave – The Boy Who Played the Harp | 10/1 | William Hill | 6/1 |
| Kojey Radical – Don't Look Down | 10/1 | William Hill, Betfred, 10bet | 8/1 |
| Knats – A Great Day In Newcastle | 16/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 9/1 |
| JADE – THAT'S SHOWBIZ BABY! | 16/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 8/1 |
| Suede – Antidepressants | 16/1 | Betfred, Ladbrokes, 10bet, Coral | 10/1 |
| Paul McCartney – The Boys of Dungeon Lane | 17/1 | Unibet | 14/1 |
| War Child Records – HELP(2) | 25/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 12/1 |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and correct as of 09:23 BST, Thursday 22 October 2026. See the full market on Oddschecker's Mercury Prize winner odds.
Who Is Favourite to Win the Mercury Prize 2026?
Olivia Dean is favourite at a best price of 18/5, an implied chance of about 22%. Most firms go 7/2 and 10Bet is shortest at 11/4. She was 7/1 when the shortlist was announced on 30 July, and the money has kept coming since. This is her second nomination, after her debut Messy made the 2023 list, and The Art of Loving went to number one.
Nia Archives is second favourite at 5/1 (about 17%). She is the most popular bet with Oddschecker users. Her only dance record on the shortlist drifted out to 11/1 in September before being backed into a range of 7/2 to 5/1.
RAYE is third favourite at 6/1 (14%). She was nominated in 2023 too, and this is her first UK number one album.
Mercury Prize 2026 Outsiders to Watch
Dove Ellis is the biggest price difference on the board. Unibet go 17/2 while William Hill go 4/1. His self-produced debut Blizzard has some of the strongest reviews on the list, and he has the second most bets via oddschecker, second only to Nia Archives.
Dave, the 2019 winner with Psychodrama, is 10/1. Florence + The Machine is also 10/1 for a fourth nomination without a win. Suede, who won the first prize in 1993, are 16/1 on their first nomination in 29 years. Knats, a jazz act from Newcastle playing a home ceremony, are also 16/1, and they and Suede have each taken 10.89% of bets.
Paul McCartney is 17/1 on his first Mercury nomination, at the age of 84.
When Is the Mercury Prize 2026?
The Mercury Prize ceremony is tonight, Thursday 22 October, at Newcastle's Utilita Arena. Lauren Laverne hosts and the show starts at 8pm. BBC Radio 6 Music coverage starts at 7pm, and BBC Four and iPlayer show it from 9.30pm. The winner receives £25,000. Most of the shortlisted acts perform on the night, while Dave and McCartney are marked by short films.
