UFC 329: Who Is the Favourite to Win McGregor or Holloway?

Max Holloway is the bookmakers’ favourite to beat Conor McGregor in their long-awaited rematch at UFC 329 tonight.

Holloway is priced at 4/9, while McGregor can be backed at 7/4 as he returns to the Octagon following a five-year absence.

However, Oddschecker betting data suggests punters are prepared to oppose the market. McGregor has attracted 70% of bets placed on the fight-winner market despite entering as the underdog.

Who Is Favourite to Win McGregor vs Holloway?

Max Holloway is the 4/9 favourite to beat Conor McGregor at UFC 329, with McGregor the 7/4 underdog.

Holloway’s favouritism is largely based on his activity, durability and proven ability to maintain a high pace over five rounds. McGregor, meanwhile, is competing for the first time since suffering a serious leg injury against Dustin Poirier in July 2021.

UFC 329 takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday 11th July, with McGregor and Holloway meeting in a welterweight main event 13 years after their first fight.

McGregor vs Holloway Odds

The betting market has moved significantly towards McGregor since prices were first released.

The Irishman opened at 3/1 but has since shortened to 7/4, suggesting that bookmakers have reacted to sustained support for the former two-weight UFC champion.

Holloway remains the clear favourite at 4/9, although the market now rates McGregor as having a considerably stronger chance than it did when betting opened.

Why Is Max Holloway Favourite Against Conor McGregor?

Holloway’s recent activity provides the strongest explanation for his position at the head of the market.

While McGregor has been away from competition for five years, Holloway has continued to face leading UFC opponents. He has fought eight times since McGregor’s injury and produced one of his most memorable victories by knocking out Justin Gaethje at UFC 300.

Holloway also holds advantages in height and recent fight experience. He enters the rematch with a 27-9 professional record, while McGregor is 22-6 and has not won since stopping Donald Cerrone in January 2020.

The former featherweight champion’s cardio and striking output could become increasingly important if the contest reaches the middle and later rounds. Holloway is accustomed to fighting at a demanding pace, whereas McGregor’s conditioning after such a lengthy layoff remains difficult to assess.

Why Could Conor McGregor Beat Max Holloway?

McGregor remains a dangerous opponent because of his accuracy, timing and power during the opening exchanges.

The 37-year-old has recorded 19 knockout victories during his professional career and carries a five-inch reach advantage over Holloway. That reach could allow him to attack from distance and counter Holloway as the favourite attempts to close the space.

Competing at welterweight may also benefit McGregor’s power. He will not be required to make the featherweight limit at which the pair first met, potentially allowing him to arrive physically stronger and more explosive.

His most realistic route to victory appears to be an early stoppage. McGregor is likely to be freshest and most dangerous during the first two rounds, before Holloway has had an opportunity to establish his volume and pace.

That view is reflected in the betting activity. Across the method-of-victory markets, 88% of bets on Oddschecker have backed either McGregor or Holloway to win by KO, TKO or disqualification.

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2 Prediction

The first fight between McGregor and Holloway took place at UFC Fight Night 26 in August 2013.

McGregor controlled much of the contest, finding success with his kicking game and landing the cleaner strikes before using takedowns to secure the later rounds. He was awarded a unanimous-decision victory despite suffering a knee injury during the fight.

The circumstances are markedly different this time. Holloway was only 21 and early in his UFC career when they first met, whereas the rematch features two former champions with considerably more experience.

McGregor should still have success during the early stages. His reach, southpaw stance and ability to counter with his left hand could discourage Holloway from immediately applying his usual pressure.

However, Holloway has developed into a far more complete and experienced fighter since their original encounter. He should be better equipped to defend McGregor’s attacks, control the distance and gradually raise the tempo.

The longer the rematch lasts, the more it should favour Holloway. McGregor’s best chance is an early knockout, but Holloway is the more reliable selection across the full duration of the contest.

McGregor vs Holloway Betting Tips

Max Holloway to Win – 4/9

Holloway’s price is short, but his activity and conditioning make him the most dependable selection in the fight-winner market.

He has remained active against high-level opposition throughout McGregor’s absence and should hold a clear advantage if the contest extends beyond the opening rounds. McGregor may produce dangerous moments early, but Holloway has the durability and experience required to survive that period.

Bet Builder: Max Holloway to Win and Fight Not to Go the Distance

Combining a Holloway victory with the fight not going the distance provides a higher-priced alternative to backing the favourite on the moneyline.

McGregor is likely to pursue an early finish because maintaining Holloway’s pace for five rounds represents a major challenge after five years away. Should he fail to secure that knockout, Holloway’s pressure and volume could produce a stoppage during the middle or later stages.

Both fighters have credible routes to a finish, making the ‘not to go the distance’ element appealing alongside a Holloway victory.

What Time Is McGregor vs Holloway in the UK?

McGregor vs Holloway is expected to begin at approximately 4:30am BST on Sunday 12th July.

The precise start time will depend on the duration of the earlier fights. UFC 329 is being staged at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with the main card scheduled to begin during the early hours of Sunday morning in the UK.

UFC 329 Main Card and Odds

UK time	Fight	Fighter 1 odds	Fighter 2 odds
4:30am	Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway	7/4	4/9
3:45am	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	26/19	8/11
3:15am	Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista	13/17	6/5
2:45am	Brandon Royval vs Lone’er Kavanagh	19/10	1/2
2:15am	King Green vs Terrance McKinney	6/5	4/5
2:15am	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	1/20	12/1

UFC 329 Preliminary Card and Odds

UK time	Fight	Fighter 1 odds	Fighter 2 odds
1:35am	Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov	5/6	15/13
12:40am	Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez	10/3	1/4
12:15am	Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka	2/5	12/5
11:40pm	Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong	1/1	10/11
11:15pm	Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida	2/5	21/10
10:50pm	Farid Basharat vs John Garza	1/6	9/2
10:30pm	Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese	10/13	11/10
10:05pm	Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa	39/19	3/7