We've picked out three of our Expected Value AI tool's best bets for Friday's match between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs.
The Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs meet in São Paulo, Brazil in what looks to be a cracking match between these two AFC West rivals.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are priced up as 8/13 favourites at the time of writing, with the point spread at Chiefs (-3).
We've picked out three bets from our Expected Value tool for tonight's match, part of our Oddschecker+ premium subscription package.
Chiefs @ Chargers Best Bets
Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown (0.5 pts) - 4/1 with Bet Victor
Kareem Hunt looks a strong anytime touchdown option against the Chargers thanks to his clear role as Kansas City’s short-yardage back.
Last season he logged 7 rushing TDs in 13 games, with 6 of those coming from inside the five-yard line, highlighting his red-zone efficiency.
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With Rashee Rice suspended, the Chiefs’ goal-line playbook narrows, often leaning on Travis Kelce and their power back.
While the Chargers allowed the second-fewest rushing TDs in 2024, they still gave up 4.7 yards per carry, meaning one KC red-zone trip could be enough for Hunt to find the end zone.
Our Expected Value tool has this bet priced closer to 11/5, so the 4/1 available with Bet Victor provides a juicy 54.6% of Expected Value.
Quentin Johnson Over 2.5 Receptions (1pt) - 5/4 widely available
Quentin Johnston averaged 3.7 catches on 6.1 targets per game in 2024, clearing 2.5 receptions in 60% of his outings.
He enters Week 1 as a starting wideout opposite rookie Ladd McConkey, ensuring strong route participation and steady involvement.
Kansas City’s defense allowed over 22 completions per game last season, and with the opener projected as a competitive, high-total matchup, Justin Herbert should be busy through the air.
Johnston’s after-the-catch ability also makes him a candidate for schemed touches, further raising his reception floor.
All told, the numbers support Over 2.5 receptions as a realistic and well-priced play.
Our Expected Value tool values this bet around 1/2, so the 5/4 available gives this play around 45% of Expected Value.
Omarion Hampton Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts (1pt) - 4/5 with William Hill & Bet MGM
Omarion Hampton looks set for meaningful work in his NFL debut under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, whose offenses ranked No. 1 in rushing during Roman’s Baltimore tenure.
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Hampton was a true workhorse at UNC, averaging nearly 20 carries per game over his last two seasons, proving he can handle volume.
Kansas City’s defense faced around 25 rushing attempts per game in 2024, leaving room for multiple backs to clear double-digit carries.
With the Chargers expected to lean on the ground game in their Brazil opener to ease pressure on Justin Herbert, Hampton clearing Over 11.5 rushing attempts feels like a strong, scheme-backed play.
Our Expected Value tool has this bet priced closer to 1/3, so the 4/5 available provides 34.66% of Expected Value.
