We've picked out three of the top plays from our Positive Expected Value tool for Monday night's NFL clash between the Jaguars and Chiefs.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our three best bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for the Monday Night Football clash between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Our NFL Expected Value betting tips are 6.81pts in profit over the past two weeks.
Bet 1: Parker Washington (Jaguars) - Over 1.5 Receptions - 1pt
This line feels a touch low for a player who’s quietly been involved each week.
Washington has nine catches for 110 yards across four games, averaging just over two receptions per outing.
With Dyami Brown carrying a knock, the young receiver’s role in Jacksonville’s offence has grown, and the coaches have made it clear they want the ball in his hands.
Facing a Kansas City defence that should force the Jags to throw, it won’t take much for this to land — two short passes or one solid drive could be enough to clear the mark.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 73.07%, so the odds of 19/20 available with BetVictor, gives us a Positive EV of 42.49% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 4/6.
Bet 2: Tyquan Thornton (Chiefs) - Over 1.5 Receptions - 1pt
This looks a generous line for a player who’s been a regular part of Kansas City’s passing game. Thornton has 10 catches in four games so far (around two or three per outing) and has already chipped in with three touchdowns.
With Xavier Worthy carrying an ankle knock, Thornton should stay heavily involved alongside Travis Kelce and Hollywood Brown.
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The Jaguars have given up close to 250 passing yards per game, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Patrick Mahomes to spread the ball around. Two short completions — or one solid drive — should be enough to get this over the line.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 72.5%, so the odds of 11/10 available with BetMGM, gives us a Positive EV of 52.25% on this play. We suggest playing this at odds no lower than 10/11.
Bet 3: Tyquan Thornton (Chiefs) - Anytime Touchdown - 0.5pts
Tyquan Thornton has quickly become a genuine threat in this Kansas City offence, with 10 catches for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns in his first four games of the season.
With Rashee Rice suspended and rookie Xavier Worthy a doubt, Thornton should continue to see plenty of action on Monday night.
The matchup looks ideal too — Jacksonville have already conceded seven passing touchdowns this year and their defence has struggled to contain deep routes.
On the quick surface in Florida, one big play or a well-designed red-zone look could easily be enough for Thornton to find pay dirt again.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 32.02%, so the odds of 17/4 available with SpreadEx gives us a Positive EV of 68.11% on this play. We suggest playing this at odds no lower than 7/2.
