Boxing expert Peter Morris has a 5/2 value tip for Daniel Dubois' return to the ring.
This weekend’s boxing card, featuring Daniel ‘Dynamite’ Dubois, Liam Williams and Sunny Edwards (plus boxer/Love Island runner-up Tommy Fury against an as of yet unnamed opponent) is a tough one for punters. Dubois is a 1/100 favourite with most bookies, Liam Williams is a best price 2/7 and Sunny Edwards is 1/14. Clearly the matchmaking on this card doesn’t leave much wiggle room for the bettors. However, here at Oddschecker we do what we can to find a little bit of value, even when the favourites are so short.
Having watched some footage of Dubois’ opponent, Kyotaro Fujimoto, it’s clear the bookies aren’t far off the mark with their 1/100 pricing. His experience and ability looks way, way below that of Dubois and the images that have surfaced of the big Japanese former-kickboxer putting away hotdogs in London’s Winter Wonderland does not bode well. Anything other than an early stoppage would be a surprise.
However, even betting on early rounds doesn’t provide much value, Dubois to win in rounds 1-3 is 4/9. Looking at single rounds you can get 5/2 on round 1 and 3/1 on round 2. However, punting on single rounds, however poor the opponent, always feels a bit risky. The 5/2 on Daniel Dubois in rounds 3-4 looks a bit better; whilst Dubois will almost certainly stop Fujimoto, the Japanese heavyweight is light on his feet (as expected from an ex-kickboxer) and will almost certainly be on the run from the opening bell. In the hunt for value, it’s not unimaginable that the visiting Japanese fighter makes it through the first couple but is eventually blitzed by Triple D in the 3rd or 4th .