Dubois vs Joyce - Saturday 28th November - 22:00

This Saturday sees an absolute rumble in the COVID bubble as two undefeated British heavyweights go at it, unfortunately, behind closed door. Both fighters are on the way up in their pro career but are poles apart in terms of their age and experience. Daniel Dubois is a young, fresh fighter with 15 pro wins (14 by stoppage) and no losses. At 23 he is at the start of his career. On the flipside, Joe Joyce has 11 wins (10 by stoppage) and no losses but is 35 and at the tail end of his career. Joyce turned pro late in life as he competed extensively and successfully at amateur level.

In terms of betting on the fight, the bookies are expecting a stoppage: the fight to go the distance is best price 11/4 and to end inside the distance 4/11. Dubois is the outright favourite (best price 3/10) whilst Joe Joyce is a more backable 3/1. If you do fancy Joe Joyce in this bout, then the outright 3/1 looks the best bet rather than looking at methods or rounds. However, whilst the Dubois outright price is not attractive there are other bets that look good value. Firstly, the bookies are underestimating Joe Joyce in this fight, he’s an Olympic silver medallist, has already beaten better opposition than Dubois (Bryant Jennings, Alexander Ustinov and Bermane Stiverne are all better names than anyone on Dubois’ resumé) and has an excellent chin. Joyce’s experience and durability alone should mean Dubois will have a slim chance of blasting him out early as the bookies favour. Instead the value is betting on the fight to go into the later rounds. Over 7.5 rounds in the fight is available at 11/10 with Paddy Power & Betfair and looks like one of the best prices of the fight (alternatively you can take the over 6.5 at 5/6 or over 5.5 at 4/6). The fight to go the full distance as previously referenced at 11/4 is also an attractive bet.

Over 7.5 Rounds - 3pts @ 11/10

Joe Joyce is a huge step up for Dubois and Joyce’s strength and resilience will likely take the fight into the later rounds. If that does happen there’s no guarantee which way the fight will go but Dubois’ solid fundamentals, superior mobility and extremely effective and heavy jab should be enough to see win more rounds against the older and slower Joyce. The 9/2 that is available for Dubois to win a decision looks generous as a second bet on the night.

Daniel Dubois By Decision - 1pt @ 9/2