Usyk vs Dubois

A lot has changed since Oleksandr Usyk and Daniel Dubois first fought in August 2023, but the most important changes aren’t with Usyk. They’re with Dubois.

Usyk is basically the same fighter he was back then, which is to say, he’s still the best heavyweight in the world.

We didn’t know that outright before because he hadn’t fought Tyson Fury, but now he’s beaten him twice. That’s solidified everything we already suspected about how great he is.

 

Looking back at that first fight with Dubois, Usyk was heavily favoured, and aside from that controversial moment, which I thought was a low blow, he dealt with everything pretty comfortably.

He took it to the next level and got the stoppage win. Since then, his global reputation has only grown.

But it’s Dubois who comes into this rematch as a new man. Before their first fight, people were calling him a quitter, and to be honest, that reputation only got stronger after Usyk stopped him.

But what’s impressed me is how he’s turned things around since then. He’s developed a real resilience and, even more importantly, a belief in that resilience.

The Jorrell Miller fight was a massive moment for him. That was a situation where the old version of Dubois might have crumbled, but he stuck in there and came through it.

Then he got that huge win over Filip Hrgovic, and off the back of that, he went into the Anthony Joshua fight and blew him away.

He’s got confidence now. He knows he can hurt Usyk, he did it in the first fight, and now he’s physically stronger and mentally tougher. He’s a better fighter, no doubt about it.

But here’s the thing: he still hasn’t faced anyone as good as Usyk since that loss. Joshua made a lot of basic mistakes in that fight with Dubois, and you’re just not going to get those kinds of openings against someone like Usyk.

This is the ultimate test for Dubois.

 

Dan Morley's Usyk vs Dubois Tips & Prediction

Now, as far as the bookies go, Usyk being a 1/3 favourite feels about right to me.

He absolutely should be the favourite. He’s had one of the hardest roads in boxing to get to where he is now.

But don’t get me wrong, I don’t think this is a mismatch.

Dubois is a live underdog in this fight. In fact, I’d go as far as saying he’s the third-best heavyweight in the world today behind Usyk and Fury.

He has a legitimate shot, but he has to get everything right, and Usyk has to have an off night.

If I’m being honest, I just can’t see Dubois outboxing Usyk over twelve rounds, and I don’t think he’ll land the kind of bombs he landed on Joshua.

 

Usyk’s not the hardest puncher in the division, but he’s a master of breaking fighters down.

He’s constantly twitching on that front foot, making you work, making you miss, and slowly chipping away.

He wears you out. I could see Dubois coming in aggressive, trying to rush him like he did with AJ, but I think Usyk will make him miss, drag him into deep waters, and exhaust him.

That’s where I see the fight being won.

Even though Usyk isn’t known as a knockout artist, look at the evidence, he stopped Dubois, nearly stopped Joshua in the final round of their first fight, and had Fury reeling at times too. He has this knack for getting to people late in fights.

So if I had to put money on it? I’d back Usyk to win by a stoppage in the championship rounds. Round 9 or 10, maybe. A TKO from an accumulation of shots rather than one big punch.

Dubois is a better fighter now, stronger, more confident, and far grittier than before. But Usyk is Usyk. And that’s still a level above anyone else in the division.

Oleksandr Usyk by KO TKO or Disqualification - 6/4 with William Hill