Gaethje vs Pimblett: UFC 324 Betting Tips Main Event & Undercard

Paddy Pimblett faces Justin Gaethje in Las Vegas on Saturday night with the winner crowned the new interim UFC lightweight champion. 

The Liverpudlian, Pimblett, comes into this one on a seven-fight win streak and is the 4/9 favourite to defeat the future UFC hall-of-famer, Gaethje. 

Check out our tips for the main event, plus an accumulator for the earlier fights on the UFC 324 card. 

Paddy Pimblett vs Justin Gaethje Betting Tips

Backing Paddy Pimblett to win here isn’t about him out-pointing Justin Gaethje over five rounds — it’s about chaos. Gaethje’s style is designed to amplify risk, forcing violent exchanges and scrambles rather than controlling the fight at range. That plays into Pimblett’s biggest strength: he doesn’t need to be “better” for 25 minutes, he just needs one messy sequence where he can turn a clinch or a wild exchange into a grappling transition, because once the fight becomes unstable, Paddy’s ability to create finishing moments comes to the forefront.

That’s why this matchup presents a realistic path for Pimblett. He’s at his most dangerous when fights are fast and unstructured — chaining pressure into back takes, attacking the neck, and finishing in transitions. Gaethje is famously difficult to put away with strikes unless you land perfectly, but submissions are a different threat entirely, and Pimblett has proven he can find them quickly when opponents give him openings. If he can force Gaethje into even one prolonged scramble, the submission threat becomes very live.

The Under 3.5 rounds fits naturally alongside the Pimblett pick because both men’s clearest win conditions skew early and violent. Pimblett’s best chance is fresh — when he can explode into scrambles and create grappling chaos — while Gaethje’s power is most dangerous in the opening rounds too. That creates a highly correlated angle: if Pimblett wins, it’s far more likely to be inside the distance rather than on the scorecards, making Pimblett to win + Under 3.5 a strong value play for UFC 324’s main event.

Pimblett to win + Under 3.5 Total Rounds - 6/5 with BetMGM. 2pts Stake Advised.

UFC 324 Accumulator Betting Tip

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis – Fight NOT to go the distance (No @ 4/11)

Heavyweight fights are always one clean shot away from ending, and Derrick Lewis is still one of the most dangerous knockout artists the UFC has ever seen. Even if Cortes-Acosta fights smart, he’ll be forced into exchanges at some stage, and that’s exactly where Lewis can end things instantly. With the power and finish potential on both sides, it’s far more likely this gets stopped than goes to the judges.

Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev – Gautier Round 1 (@ 5/6)

Gautier is a fast starter who carries real early finishing threat, and Pulyaev tends to be at his most vulnerable before he finds rhythm and settles into range. In these kinds of matchups, Gautier’s explosiveness and power are most dangerous early, when opponents haven’t adjusted and the fight is at its most chaotic. If Gautier wins, Round 1 is the most logical and highest-probability window for him to do it.

Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas – Silva to win (@ 2/7)

Silva’s speed, volume, and movement are a nightmare for a fighter like Namajunas, especially at flyweight where the pace is higher and margins are smaller. Rose is still elite technically, but Silva’s ability to win minutes with output and athleticism makes her extremely reliable over three rounds. Unless Namajunas can consistently slow her down with grappling control, Silva’s striking tempo should edge the fight.

Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong – Over 1.5 rounds (@ 1/4)

O’Malley is at his best when he builds reads and starts layering shots, and he typically doesn’t rush recklessly for early finishes against elite opposition. Song is durable, defensively sound, and dangerous early — which usually forces a more measured start from opponents rather than an immediate shootout. With both men having reasons to manage risk in the first round, Over 1.5 is the smart, accumulator-friendly angle.

The accumulator pays a best price of 3/1 with betway when writing. 1pt stake advised.