UFC 292

Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley Prediction: Will Sterling Continue His Title Run at UFC 292?

The bantamweight belt is on the line once again when Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley go at it in the main event of UFC 292 in Boston. Sterling is making a run for the greatest bantamweight of all time, as this will be his fifth title fight in a row. Jose Aldo still holds the bantamweight record with seven defenses, but with a win here, Aljo will be one step closer.

Across the octagon is the young but technical Sean O'Malley, who has as many fans as he does haters. He is an interesting personality, much in the same way as Conor McGregor was in his prime (and still to this day, honestly), but this weekend we will finally see if he can live up to his ego and hype. At 28 years old, O'Malley will get his first title shot off a controversial win over Petr Yan.

At 41/20, the books don't think O'Malley will get it done. Does he have a shot here?

Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley Date, Time, and Where to Watch

  • Date: Sunday, August 20, 2023
  • Time: 03:00 am
  • Where to Watch: PPV

Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley UFC 292 Prediction

Both men are on impressive win streaks entering this fight, but Aljo has really grown during his title run. The guy that fought Petr Yan and won by disqualification looks very different than the champion today. Aljo's stand-up has improved, as he can now successfully use his striking to set up his dominant ground game. His striking is still not at an elite level, but he has found creative ways to use it to find his takedowns. From there, Aljo goes straight to work.

It's a pity his nickname is already "The Funkmaster" because it should be "The Human Backpack." If Sterling gets anywhere near your back, the fight is over. His strength on the ground for a bantamweight is scary, and although he has not submitted an opponent during this title run, his grappling has won him a lot of these fights, and he nearly submitted Yan multiple times in the rematch.

While Sterling has many upsides, the danger comes in the early rounds, where O'Malley is fresh and fastest. Sterling will obviously look to take this fight to the ground, and this will be a true test of Sean's takedown defense. Sean's takedown defense looked pretty good against Yan, and he was able to stuff a lot of Yan's early attacks until late in the fight.

If Sean can defend even one takedown in the first round or two, this fight gets very, very interesting because if this was strictly a fight on the feet, O'Malley will pick Sterling apart.

The number one pound-for-pound fighter, Alexander Volkanovski, was quoted saying, “Sean O’Malley, I think he’s up there as one of the best strikers in the UFC, he’s right up there,” on his Youtube channel. The fact that the greatest active fighter in the UFC is mentioning Sean as one of the best strikers in his own eyes is a massive tip of the cap from Volkanovski.

He's not crazy for thinking this, either. Sean O'Malley, at the present moment, has one of the smoothest and most fluent striking games I have seen. The way he can manage distance and land his shots while evading any counters is a thing of beauty. His size helps, of course, as he is one of the taller fighters in the division, standing 5' 11". Sterling is listed at 5' 7" in comparison. O'Malley is somehow able to make the weight, and his size only magnifies his distance management on the feet.

Sterling's advantage lies in the first few rounds because we have seen him slow down later in fights, like in the third against Yan. He is still dangerous late in fights, but his footwork slows a bit, and his shots get a little wilder. More swinging hooks instead of straight jabs.

Sean has immense output, averaging 7.43 significant strikes per minute, and this volume will start to add up on Sterling if he cannot find a takedown early in the fight to deter O'Malley's stand-up. However, if Sterling can take this fight to the ground and wear O'Malley out, he can certainly find his back and end this fight by submission.

The outcome of O'Malley knockout and Sterling submission is closer to 50-50 in my mind. I can see either happening, dependent on how good Sean's takedown defense looks early on. Because Sterling by submission is the most favored outcome for the fight,

I am taking O'Malley by knockout for the better price. As crazy as it sounds, I think people are still underestimating just how good O'Malley's striking has become. If this fight stays standing, O'Malley will piece together a knockout combination, but if Sterling can grind this out on the ground, he will get Sean out of there with a rear naked choke.

Therefore, my favorite bet is the under. If this fight reaches the fourth round, Sterling will have the cardio advantage and will finish it from there before we get to the fifth. O'Malley just has to hope he can find the knockout before then, and I think he can.