20:00 Friday

Both Teams to Score - Yes

You might not typically associate Brighton with high-scoring matches; in fact, in the Premier League, only matches featuring Wolves have seen fewer total goals. Yet there is something about the ‘M23 Derby’ which appears to trigger more goalmouth action. Both teams have scored in eight of the last nine meetings between the two sides. 

Building on the expectation that both teams will score in the match, a score draw would appear the likeliest mutually inclusive outcome given that Brighton are hardly free scoring but unlikely to leak too many goals having conceded just nine in nine home Premier League games so far. 

And don’t be put off by the fact Palace have failed to score in five of their nine away matches – four of those failures were against Manchester United, Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool, with the Eagles scoring twice at West Ham, Manchester City and Arsenal as well as three at Burnley.

It’s also worth noting that no team has drawn more league games than Brighton (9) this season, with Palace joint third with eight draws. Southampton are the only other team with nine draws. Three of the last five meetings between Brighton and Palace have ended 1-1.

BTTS - Yes - 1pt @ 75/19

Gallagher yellow card

It’s fair to say that Chelsea loanee Conor Gallagher has been a major success story at the start of Patrick Vieira’s Palace reign, but he hasn’t been shy of putting his foot in. As revealed by statistics from WhoScored.com, he has been carded 15 times since the start of last season, while he was booked late on in September’s reverse fixture – which finished 1-1. 

His recent absence from the team – thought to be Covid related – possibly spared Gallagher a one-match ban for five yellow cards. He collected his four yellow cards across the first 14 matches, avoided a yellow in the subsequent four, before missing his team’s 19th outing – after which the threshold for a ban increased from five to 10 yellow cards.

Gallagher yellow card - 1pt @ 12/5

Maupay to score anytime

The much-derided Neal Maupay is Brighton’s top scorer with seven goals - a decent return from 15 starts and a total of 1,284 minutes, equating to a goal every 183 minutes. The Frenchman has also scored twice in matches against Palace, both in score draws, including the Seagulls’ goal in the reverse fixture.
His extra-time winner in the FA Cup third round at West Brom last weekend was his fourth goal in his last six matches, only drawing blanks at Stamford Bridge and in his side’s last league outing at Everton – where he did notch an assist.