20:00 Tuesday

The first semi-final of this season's edition of the Carabao Cup gets underway at St. Mary’s as league strugglers Southampton welcome high-flying Newcastle United. Despite their troubles, the Saints knocked out Manchester City in the last round but can they claim a first-leg victory?

Southampton vs Newcastle Stats

  • Five of Newcastle United’s last six matches have produced fewer than three goals
  • The visitors have kept three successive clean sheets
  • The hosts have only conceded twice or more in four of their 10 home league outings

 

Southampton vs Newcastle Prediction:

Betting Tip: Under 2.5 goals

These two sides are having very different seasons. The hosts have looked pretty woeful at times under the tutelage of Nathan Jones and currently sit bottom of the Premier League table. But the Carabao Cup has offered something of a distraction and they were well worth their win over Manchester City at this venue in the quarter-finals.

The visitors are rejuvenated under Eddie Howe and finishing in the Champions League places is no longer a pipe dream but a real possibility. It feels as though they’re on a similar path to Manchester City in the aftermath of their 2008 takeover and winning this competition would provide the perfect platform to kick on and move closer to their ambition of being one of the best clubs in the division.

The first-leg tie looks set to be a close affair as both will want to take a positive result into the second match at St. James Park. I’m expecting a rather tentative match with both outfits looking to come through the early stages relatively unscathed and in a good position. The second-half could potentially see a breakthrough but given both sides have looked fairly competent in the defensive department recently, with neither conceding more than once across their last three respective matches across all competitions, it looks as though goals may be in short supply.

The market tends to agree with over 2.5 goals at a best price of 11/10 but I'd argue the 5/6 available on under 2.5 goals is still a good pick. First-legs are often low scoring affairs with the emphasis being put on going into the second one without having ground to make up.

The Saints have looked a bit more solid of late and I'll have 1.5 points on this one seeing less than three goals in total.

Southampton vs Newcastle Results

Date Result Competition
06/11/2022 Southampton 1-4 Newcastle Premier League
10/03/2022 Southampton 1-2 Newcastle Premier League
28/08/2021 Newcastle 2-2 Southampton Premier League
06/02/2021 Newcastle 3-2 Southampton Premier League
06/11/2020 Southampton 1-2 Newcastle Premier League

 

Southampton vs Newcastle Team News 

Southampton:

  • Nathan Jones will hope to have Theo Walcott, Alex McCarthy and Armel Bella-Kotchap available in some capacity here
  • However, the Saints boss is without duo Juan Larios and Tino Livramento

Newcastle United:

  • Eddie Howe is without only Matt Targett, Jonjo Shelvey and Emil Krafth for Tuesday's semi-final meeting with Southampton
  • Alexander Isak may lead the charge in what should be a strong Newcastle XI

Southampton vs Newcastle Lineups:

Predicted lineups are brought to you by WhoScored.com.

Southampton

Bazunu, Lyanco, Caleta-Car, Salisu, Walker-Peters, Diallo, Lavia, Edozie, Ward-Prowse, Djenepo, Adams

Newcastle

Pope, Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn, Willock, Guimaraes, Longstaff, Almiron, Sain-Maximin, Joelinton 

Southampton vs Newcastle Score Prediction:

Southampton 0-1 Newcastle