Brentford vs Crystal Palace

Bryan Mbeumo Over 0.5 Shots on-Target

It’s a slight surprise to see Brentford trading as big as 19/20 (1.95) ahead of Saturday’s home showdown with powderpuff Crystal Palace considering the Bees’ impressive run of results, as well as their eye-catching underlying data. 

Thomas Frank’s team have suffered just four Premier League defeats all season, have been beaten only once when taking on teams below them in the league standings, and come into the weekend unbeaten in 10 (W5-D5-L0). In contrast, Crystal Palace are sleepwalking their way into a relegation battle and remain winless against top-half operators.

Worryingly for the Eagles, Patrick Vieira’s charges have kept just five clean sheets this term and Palace’s brittle backline is bound to be tested by Brentford’s direct approach here.

Top marksman Ivan Toney is the obvious option in the majority of attacking markets, although his partner in crime, Bryan Mbeumo, has displayed remarkable consistency and is well worth siding with at a very enticing 2.02 (Unibet) to land Over 0.5 Shots on-Target.

The Cameroon international has managed at least one attempt on-target in 15 (68%) of 22 starts for the Bees already this term, including in nine (82%) of 11 encounters at their West London base. Despite Mbeumo’s high strike rate, the odds on offer imply just a 50% chance of landing the bounty, giving us a great value opportunity.

Wolves vs Bournemouth

Dango Ouattara Over 1.5 Shots

Bournemouth retooled following their winter takeover and a January splurge in the transfer window brought in a number of interesting new signings. 

Burkino Faso international Dango Ouattara was a £20m addition from Lorient and the right-sided attacker has already made a big impression for the Cherries. 

The 21-year-old has fired in shot tallies of 1-4-5 in his first three Premier League appearances, and the sharp-shooter looks an attractive option at 1.93 (Unibet) to attempt Over 1.5 Shots this weekend.

It’s a line Ouattara covered in 15 (83%) of 18 outings for Lorient earlier this campaign, averaging 2.90 shots per-game, and should go close again as Bournemouth bid to arrest their worrying form with a trip to Wolves this weekend.

Despite the Old Gold’s improvement under Julen Lopetegui, Wolves have still faced 109 shots in seven Premier League showdowns (15.57 per-game on average), with all seven opposition sides managing at least 12 attempts at goal.

Brighton vs Fulham

Solly March to score at anytime

Brighton are short 7/10 (1.70) favourites to topple Fulham on Saturday with the market having the Seagulls in for around about 1.85 goals. The way in which Roberto De Zerbi’s outfit are playing, it’s difficult to make a major argument against Albion at the odds.

But better value can be found elsewhere with in-form Solly March an exceptional price at 4/1 (5.00) to notch at anytime with Betfair/Paddy Power.

There are 10 Brighton players offered at shorter prices than March in the Anytime Goalscorer market with the local hero netting four times in his most recent seven encounters. The versatile attacking midfielder is playing more advanced under De Zerbi and is now the team’s second top goalscorer since Leandro Trossard’s departure. 

March is netting every 263 minutes under De Zerbi – effectively once every three games – and the 28-year-old has had numerous opportunities for more in that sample too. The Seagulls star has attempted a minimum of three shots in each of his last five fixtures and is getting routinely into positions of promise.

In fact, since De Zerbi was appointed, March has had 62 touches of the ball in the opposition penalty area. During Brighton’s entire stay in the Premier League, the most March had previously managed in a full season is 60. It shows he’s a serious threat in Albion’s attack and the 4/1 quotes just look far too big to ignore.