Chelsea vs Leeds

Joao Felix Over 2.5 Shots

Chelsea are currently in the midst of their worst 15-game run of results in the Premier League since 1995 (W2-D6-L7) and have posted their lowest goal return at this stage of a season since 1994 with pressure mounting on Graham Potter (1/2 next manager to leave) to arrest the Blues sorry slump.

One of the West Londoners’ bright sparks has been January signing Joao Felix. The Portuguese forward may only have one Chelsea goal to his name across his five appearances, but the 23-year-old has been hugely influential in the final-third, firing in at least three shots in all five outings thus far with tallies of 6-3-3-4-3 (averaging 3.8 per-game).

With the Blues short odds-on favourites to succeed against lowly Leeds on Saturday, Felix should again be integral to anything positive Potter’s posse engineer in the final-third with Over 2.5 Joao Felix shots holding plenty of appeal at 1.82 (Unibet). 

Wolves vs Spurs

Pablo Sarabia Over 0.5 Fouls

Another January addition, Pablo Sarabia, has been making a difference for relegation battlers Wolves (best price 15/4). The on-loan PSG ace has been a lively operator in the Old Gold’s armoury under Julen Lopetegui, averaging 1.70 attempts at goal per-game since his switch to the Premier League.

However, it’s the fouls market that scream value on Saturday as Wolves welcome Tottenham to Molineux. The Spaniard has started each of Wanderers’ last five EPL encounters and has committed at least one misdemeanour in each outing, collecting two yellow cards already.

Sarabia to commit Over 0.5 Fouls for the sixth successive Premier League date is very backable at 2.10 with Unibet (since cut into Evens).

Southampton vs Leicester

James Maddison Over 0.5 Shots on-Target

Leicester have been an erratic outfit to follow for the majority of 2022/23, although the Foxes have tended to be at their most effective best when talisman James Maddison has been fit and available. 

City have won 41% of Premier League games and averaged 1.8 goals per-game when the England international has featured since the start of last season, compared to just a 17% success-rate and 1.0 goal per-game average when he’s been absent, such as last week.

Back in the fold following injury and illness, Maddison should resume his role in the hole in Brendan Rodgers’ favoured 4-2-3-1 formation. Here, the 26-year-old has found creative license to roam and highlighted his offensive threat with shot totals of 2-3-6 since starting back in the Leicester XI with set-pieces and long-range attempts a regular occurrence. 

Backing Maddison to manage Over 0.5 Shots on-Target at rock-bottom Southampton should have legs on Saturday evening. The Saints have equalled their worst-ever home losing streak in the league (five), are winless in eight at St Mary’s (W0-D2-L6) and have kept their sheets clean just twice all term. Leicester should be capable of making a real impact.

Nottingham Forest vs Everton

Morgan Gibbs-White Over 1.5 Shots

Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in eight City Ground showdowns (W4-D4-L0) with the Reds also grabbing a goal in 11 of their previous 12 Premier League fixtures on the banks of the Trent, suggesting Steve Cooper’s troops will be well capable of adding further misery to Everton’s already rotten road record in Sunday’s relegation six-pointer.

One player who has proven hugely influential since his big-money summer move has been Morgan Gibbs-White with the former Wolves attacker playing his way into England contention with a series of eye-catching efforts in Forest’s forwardline.

The 23-year-old has broken the Over 1.5 Shots barrier in nine of his last 10 Premier League appearances and repeated the feat in 14 of his 19 matches when playing at least an hour, including eight of 12 at the City Ground. A repeat stands out at 1.72 (Unibet) with Everton allowing the second-most shots on the road in the EPL (15.30 per-game).