FPL Tips for Gameweek 11 from FPL Heisenberg using latest odds through oddschecker.
Have you thought about playing the Triple Captain chip on Erling Haaland? What do you do if you went without the Norwegian striker on wildcard? And is Darwin Nunez on your radar for GW11?
FPL Teams to Target in GW11
The table below shows the five teams least likely to keep a clean sheet in GW11.
| Team (Opponent) | Clean Sheet |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth (MCI Away) | 4.3% |
| Luton (LIV Home) | 6.7% |
| Nottingham Forest (AVL Home) | 18.2% |
| Everton (BHA Home) | 20% |
| West Ham (BRE Away) | 20% |
There is one team that stands out here. Admittedly given a far greater likelihood of keeping a clean sheet than Bournemouth at Man City or Luton at home to Liverpool, there is an implied 80% chance that Brentford score a goal against the Hammers on Saturday.
What’s quite damning is that Brentford are considered likelier to score than the team facing the league’s bottom team, Sheffield United, who have conceded four more than any other and at least 10 more goals than anyone outside the bottom four.
Bryan Mbeumo has been directly involved in 50% of the Bees’ goals (eight goals, eight assists). For those who sold him on wildcard, should you be thinking about bringing him back?
FPL Heisenberg Verdict: After this Gameweek he plays Liverpool and Arsenal, but Mbeumo is worth holding this week off the back of two hauls and facing a West Ham side who are leaky defensively.
FPL Tips: Who are the best sub £7.0m midfielders?
Speaking of Brentford’s main man, it feels like we’ve come full circle from the pre-season debate of Mbeumo vs Mitoma vs Diaby (Eze now injured). FPL players with Salah and Haaland are routinely in the market for the best cut price midfield options, so who is the best option for GW11?
| Player (Match) | Goal | Assist | Goal Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mbeumo (WHU Home) | 37% | 22.2% | 59.2% |
| Diaby (NFO Away) | 27.8% | 25% | 52.8% |
| Mitoma (EVE Away) | 27.8% | 25% | 52.8% |
| Hwang (SHU Away) | 28.6% | 18.2% | 46.8% |
| Sterling (TOT Away) | 26.7% | 15.4% | 42.1% |
| Douglas Luiz (NFO Away) | 20% | 20% | 40% |
FPL Heisenberg Verdict: The best sub £7.0m midfielder to own in GW11 is Hwang Hee-chan. He has been in great form under Gary O'Neil and faces the worse side in the league this week. I just hope Neto's injury doesn't hamper Wolves’ attacking threat too much.
FPL Captain Picks – Haaland vs The Rest | FPL Predicted Points
Is Haaland the stand out captain pick this week? Is a route into Liverpool’s in-form attack the best way of playing against the majority of the field?
FPL predicted points for Haaland vs four possible captaincy punts for GW11 includes the likelihood of goals, assists and clean sheets (for Salah only), minus the probability of a yellow card.
It does not factor in bonus points, while it assumes – if fit to play - each of the players will pass 60 minutes to collect the two appearance points.
| Player (Match) | Predicted Points |
|---|---|
| Salah (LUT Away) | 5.96 |
| Haaland (BOU Home) | 5.66 |
| Alvarez (BOU Home) | 4.69 |
| Darwin (LUT Away) | 4.54 |
| Watkins (NFO Away) | 4.16 |
FPL Heisenberg Verdict: I’ll be on Haaland in GW11. While Salah edges him for predicted points minus bonus, if you're looking for a punt look no further than Darwin Núñez.
He's in great form and his minutes are more secure right now than they have been at any stage this season. Luton away has a Darwin brace (16.7% chance) written all over it.
