19:45 Friday

In their final home match of the qualification phase, England aims to solidify their leading position in the group, maintaining an impeccable record.

England vs Malta Bet Builder Tips

  1. England to win by 4 or more goals
  2. Malta Under 3.5 Total Shots
  3. Harry Kane to score anytime

 

Advised Bet Builder - 1pt @ 1.9 on bet365

Leg 1:  England to win by 4 or more goals

  • Malta have faced significant challenges away from home in this campaign, particularly against the stronger teams in the group. Italy, even with a less-than-full-strength squad, secured a 4-0 victory over them, while Ukraine amassed nearly 4.5 expected goals (xG), though they only managed a 1-0 win.
  • Reflecting on Malta's previous World Cup qualification away games reveals a consistent pattern of struggles when facing top-tier teams.
  • During that qualification phase, Malta encountered two elite teams, Russia and Croatia, in away matches. In both games, they conceded more than 3.00 expected goals against (xGA) and generated next to nothing in attack.
  • Also, I think we can all agree that England at Wembley poses a far bigger challenge than any of the teams I’ve just mentioned.
  • When these two met in Malta, England ran out 4-0 winners and didn’t allow their opponents a sniff at goal.
  • Malta ranks as the fourth-worst team in Europe and falls within my personal bottom 10 for international teams in Europe.
  • In 2021 England beat both San Marino and Andorra at home by 4 or more goals on both occasions despite fielding less full strength XI’s
  • If England do line up as expected with Harry Kane, they shouldn’t have any problems running up the score.
  • Probable XI: Pickford, Walker, Maguire, Guehi, Trippier, Alexander-Arnold, Rice, Gallagher, Saka, Kane, Grealish.

Leg 2: Malta Under 3.5 Shots

  • England didn’t allow a single attempt against Malta when they last met.
  • If we exclude the Italy match (13 attempts allowed), England has allowed just three shots on their goal at home this campaign. North Macedonia failed to register, and Ukraine managed just three
  • Reflecting on the previous qualification phase for Qatar 2022, England displayed similar defensive strength against weaker teams. San Marino managed only one attempt, and Andorra also recorded just a single attempt.
  • During the qualification phase, no team conceded fewer shots than England, with a total of 25, most of which came against Italy.
  • Malta ranks as the sixth-worst in this qualification phase for shots per 90, at 5.19; however, this number drops considerably when we exclude the games they played against North Macedonia.

Leg 3: Harry Kane to score

  • Harry Kane is displaying exceptional form, showcasing Ballon d’Or-worthy performances. Undoubtedly, he's eager to continue his fine goal scoring form.
  • This season, Kane's goal-scoring rate in club competitions stands at an impressive 1.35 goals per 90 minutes. This is a significant increase from his output last season at Spurs, where he averaged 0.61 goals per 90.
  • Since 2015, Harry Kane has maintained a prolific scoring rate of 1.55 goals per 90 minutes in qualification matches played at Wembley, with an expected goals (xG) average of 1.1.
  • Considering the opponent we should expect Kane to be among the goals again.