Saturday Football Tips: Weekly Long Shot from Mark O'Haire

This is the latest in a series of long shot bets from football tipster Mark O’Haire, who will be picking out his favourite selection for the weekend at odds of around 5/1 (6.0) or greater.

This week’s selection can be backed at a huge 20/1 on bet365.

Saturday Football Tips from Mark O’Haire

Gabriel Magalhaes Each-way First Goalscorer at 20/1 (21.00) with bet365

Since returning from their winter break in Dubai, Arsenal have been in lethal form. The Gunners have recorded four straight Premier League wins and scored 16 goals to put themselves firmly back in the title race (best price 6/1 on William Hill).

However, it is the work behind the scenes that has played a huge factor in their 2024 resurgence with an emphasis on set-piece proficiency. It’s an element that’s always been a key part of their tactical approach since set-piece coach Nicolas Jover joined, but on their winter break they made the decision to make Declan Rice their key corner taker.

It has paid huge dividends. Rice took three corners in the first 20 Premier League games. Since then, the England midfielder has taken 12 corners in four games and provided three assists from dead-ball situations, two of them coming in last week’s 6-0 evisceration of West Ham at the London Stadium.

With Gabriel Jesus injured at times this term, Arsenal appear to be lacking that key centre forward who can contribute 20+ goals a campaign, yet the Gunners are making up for it with a league-high 16 goals arriving from set-pieces. And this weekend they travel to Turf Moor to face a Burnley side with the second-highest goals conceded from dead-ball situations.

Burnley have already conceded 12 times from set-pieces since promotion and the Clarets are giving up a league-high 0.44 Expected Goals (xG) per-game from set-pieces. Vincent Kompany’s charges looked all at sea defending dead-ball situations against Liverpool last weekend and could be vulnerable again when Arsenal arrive.

With that in-mind, I’m happy to have a crack at hulking centre-half Gabriel Magalhaes getting on the scoresheet on Saturday. Backing the Brazilian each-way at 20/1 (21.00) in the First Goalscorer market will earn us a handsome pay-out should the Arsenal defender open the scoring in Lancashire, or a third of the 20/1 odds if Gabriel contributes at any time.

Quite often the number one target from set-pieces, Gabriel has already bagged four times in the Premier League this season – all of which has arrived in his past seven matches – whilst the 26-year-old has had 16 attempts at goal in his most recent 13 league starts, highlighting his potential threat in the final-third.