Premier League Predictions: Mark O'Haire Weekend Football Tips

Leon Bailey to score or assist

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 21/20 Bet365

Ollie Watkins has understandably hogged the Aston Villa headlines this season with 24 goal contributions in only 26 Premier League starts. However, it’s difficult to ignore Leon Bailey’s resurgence and renaissance – the Jamaica winger has started in 11 of his most recent 13 league appearances and is having a major influence in the Villans’ attack.

Unpredictable, electric and shouldering a new-found consistency alongside Watkins in an exciting twin-attacking threat, Unai Emery recently rewarded the 26-year-old with an extended contract. With a non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) per-90 of 0.32 and Expected Assists (xA) per-90 of 0.36, Bailey ranks amongst the most dangerous players in the EPL.

Only seven players (minimum 500 minutes) can better his combined npxG + xA figure of 0.68 per-90 this season. Bailey’s also returning 1.07 goal involvements on a per-90-minute basis (better than any other player to have featured for at least 500 minutes), as well as boasting the best minutes-per-goal-involvement record, recording one every 84 minutes.

Bailey’s the only Premier League player averaging 0.5 goals and 0.5 assists per-90 this term and so odds-against offerings on the Aston Villa ace to score or assist – 21/20 (2.05) – with Bet365 have to be snapped up when travelling to a porous Luton outfit.

Jean-Philippe Mateta 2+ Offsides

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 6/4 BetVictor

Oliver Glasner has only presided over two Crystal Palace matches since taking over the role from arch-pragmatist Roy Hodgson yet there’s already been a noticeable shift in playing style from the Eagles. Palace are now utilising wing-backs in a 3-4-2-1 system that’s featured Jean-Philippe Mateta as the focal point of the attack.

Mateta scored in the 3-0 home victory over Burnley last time out, though it’s the Frenchman’s offside lines that make most appeal this weekend. Palace have racked up eight offsides in their two fixtures under Glasner, four of which have been attributed to Mateta – the 26-year-old has been flagged twice in each tussle and a repeat appeals at 6/4 (2.50) on BetVictor.

Only Aston Villa can better Tottenham’s offside trap with Spurs seeing their opposition flagged an average of 3.32 times per-game – that figure increases to 3.77 when Ange Postecoglou’s high-line side host Premier League action.

Sergio Reguilon Over 0.5 Shots

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 5/6 Bet365

Sergio Reguilon has struggled to settle in English football since making the move to Tottenham from Spain. An unimpressive stint with Spurs has been followed by unsuccessful loan spells with Atletico Madrid and Manchester United, though the attack-minded left wing-back has started to find form at his latest temporary home with Brentford.

The 27-year-old has started each of the Bees past five league fixtures and made a reasonable impression in each. Reguilon’s high-energy approach means the Spanish international often finds himself in forward areas, firing in a shot at goal in four of those five recent outings, including in matches against Manchester City and Liverpool.

I’m happy to support Sergio Reguilon to again cover that Over 0.5 Shots line at 5/6 (1.83) on Saturday afternoon as Brentford entertain a Chelsea side arriving of a fatiguing week of cup football.