Crystal Palace vs Luton

Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire is back with his latest Premier League predictions.

Ross Barkley to have 2 or more shots

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 3/4 Ladbrokes/Coral

Luton midfielder Ross Barkley believes he can “add something” to the England squad and admitted he’s been dreaming of a return to the national team ahead of Euro 2024.

The 30-year-old hasn’t featured for the Three Lions since October 2019 but his eye-catching return to form with the Hatters has caught the attention of Premier League observers. 

Barkley has played 26 times for Luton across all competitions this season and started their last 17 Premier League matches, playing as one of the holding midfielders in Rob Edward’s 3-4-3 system.

His maturity and control in contests has been much needed for a Town side battling for top-flight survival against all pre-season expectation.

Yet Barkley has also displayed plenty of attacking intent – the former Everton wonderkid has averaged 2.20 shots per-game, firing off our required Over 1.5 Shots in 15 (79%) of his 19 league starts, as well as achieving that feat in nine of his last EPL 10 tussles, which includes encounters against Liverpool, Man Utd, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Newcastle. 

Aston Villa vs Tottenham

Leon Bailey to score or assist

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 11/10 Betfair/Paddy Power

Aston Villa’s showdown with Tottenham on Super Sunday promises plenty with the duo vying for a top-four finish. The pair played out a thriller in the reverse clash back in November – although only three goals were scored, the Expected Goals (xG) output came in at 4.10 xG with 33 shots, eight Big Chances, whilst the woodwork was hit three times.

Understandably, the goals line has been set high at 3.5 for this weekend’s match-up. Villa have already returned profitable Over 3.5 Goals plays in 69% of their home Premier League showdowns this season with games averaging 3.85 goals. Tottenham have covered the line in 58% of away days with those road trips delivering a similarly impressive 3.83 goals.

Last week we banked backing Leon Bailey to score or assist and it’s an avenue I’m eager to take on again considering the expectation of a high-scoring clash. The Jamaican already boasts the best minutes-per-goal-involvement record in the Premier League, recording a goal or assist every 84 minutes, and looks undervalued at 11/10 (2.10) with Betfair.

Bailey is also the only top-flight player averaging at least 0.5 goals and 0.5 assists per-90 this term, whilst the Villa ace is returning a hugely impressive non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) per-90 of 0.30 and Expected Assists (xA) per-90 of 0.45, ranking him amongst the most dangerous players in the top-flight this term.

Timo Werner Over 1 Offside

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 7/5 William Hill

Aston Villa’s aforementioned date with Spurs on Sunday could be labelled the ‘Offside Derby’ based on the two teams’ penchants for catching their opposition offside. The pair combined to record seven offsides in their last meeting, and the flag-happy twosome currently lead the Premier League standings by a distance in that particular metric.

Villa are the offside kings, averaging an enormous 4.61 offsides per-game and so it makes sense to focus on one of Tottenham’s chief protagonists in the same sphere. Timo Werner has started five Premier League games since his loan switch to Spurs and has been flagged on seven occasions already – he was caught offside twice in each of his last two starts.

Small samples, of course, but with Werner averaging 1.40 offsides per-start and hitting the 2+ offsides figure twice already, the 7/5 (2.40) available on William Hill for a repeat is well worth look now he’s coming up against the masters of the high line this weekend.