Premier League Predictions: Mark O'Haire Weekend Football Tips

Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire is back with his latest Premier League predictions across this weekend’s matches.

You can also read his 5/1 long shot bet for this weekend here.

Malo Gusto Over 0.5 Assists

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 7/2 Bet365

Chelsea have endured a topsy-turvy campaign. The Blues’ well-publicised trolly-dash last season is yet to bear consistent fruit, though the £26m acquisition of French right-back Malo Gusto is looking like one of the club’s shrewdest purchases in recent years.

The 20-year-old has become the first name on the Chelsea teamsheet in recent weeks with his pace, tenacity and delivery from wide areas becoming a major weapon in Mauricio Pochettino’s armoury. Since Christmas Eve, Gusto has created 16 chances in nine Premier League starts, averaging one every 49 minutes from 10 appearances in that same sample.

Gusto has three assists during that impressive run, and across all competitions the youngster has contributed eight assists in English football. With Burnley visiting on Saturday – the Clarets conceding 2+ goals in 20/25 fixtures versus teams outside the bottom-four – Gusto should have ample opportunity to enhance those eye-catching figures.

Rayan Ait-Nouri Over 0.5 Shots

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 5/6 Bet365

A feisty West Midlands derby is forecast for Saturday evening with Aston Villa strong favourites to overcome injury-stricken Wolves. The Old Gold head to Villa Park without top goalscorer Hwang Hee-Chan, Pedro Neto and potentially Matheus Cunha from the off, yet Gary O’Neil’s side still possess plenty of threat elsewhere.

Rampaging left wing-back Rayan Ait-Nouri has been a particular menace in forward areas since the start of October, getting at least one shot away in 10 of 14 Premier League fixtures when appearing for more than 40 minutes. Include the FA Cup and the Algerian ace has hitting Over 0.5 Shots in 12 of his past 16 such outings for Wolves.

Before the international break, Ait-Nouri fired in seven efforts against Coventry in the Old Gold’s FA Cup quarter-final exit and the 22-year-old therefore looks overpriced to cover the Over 0.5 Shots line here at odds of 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365. Villa have conceded at least nine attempts in each of their last 11 EPL encounters. 

Alfie Doughty 1+ Offsides

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 7/4 SkyBet

Aston Villa remain the Premier League offside kings, but Tottenham are a creditable second in the same metric, catching their opposition offside 3.39 times on average per-Premier League contest under Ange Postecoglou. Interestingly, that figure hikes to 3.85 offsides when Spurs are entertaining top-flight opposition at their North London base.

It’s easy to see why Postecoglou enjoys employing the high-line approach – shrinking the defensive area makes it harder for an opponent to find a hole where a missing player should be. It’s a brazen tactic that seeks to nullify the opposition’s threat to play around or through the defence, thereby forcing them to play over, where timing is absolutely imperative.

Luton are next up for Spurs and despite operating off the sixth-lowest average possession figure, the Hatters are in the top-10 for offsides this season, largely due to their fast and direct approach under Rob Edwards. Left wing-back Alfie Doughty leads the way for offsides in Town colours, having been flagged 12 times and averaging 0.50 offsides per-90 thus far.

Despite those encouraging numbers, SkyBet are dangling a delicious 7/4 (2.75) on Doughty being caught offside at least once at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, a price that implies only a 36% chance of success. Whichever way you look at it, that’s a great value play.