Football Accumulator Tips: Wednesday 4/1 Treble backs Arsenal to win

Brentford vs Brighton – Brentford Over 1.5 Goals

Brentford, after a hard-fought draw against Manchester United, host Brighton, who recently lost to Liverpool. Brentford’s winless streak stands at seven matches, but they’ve shown signs of recovery. Brighton, despite recent losses, are still in the race for Europe. It’s a key match with both teams eager to turn their fortunes around.

Brentford have averaged 2 xG at home since Ivan Toney's return, which is even more remarkable given that these games have featured Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City.

They have also scored in all nine of their last Premier League home games. 

It is shocking that they did not score more than once against sixth-placed Manchester United in their most recent game, despite hitting the woodwork four times.

The addition of their second-leading scorer (averaging 0.5 goals every 90 minutes), Bryan Mbeumo, who is back from injury, should help the Bees convert more of these opportunities into goals.

They also now face an opponent that struggles on the road; they have lost six of their previous seven away matches in all competitions, conceding an average of 2.3 goals.

With this in mind, I believe Brentford will score more than once against a weaker opponent than they have recently played and one who is struggling defensively on the road.

Arsenal vs Luton- Arsenal Win to Nil

Arsenal, after a commendable draw against Manchester City, host Luton Town, who are struggling with a 10-match winless streak. A win could temporarily put Arsenal atop the Premier League. Luton, despite recent setbacks, have scored in their last 18 games. It’s a crucial match for both teams with high stakes.

Despite this impressive scoring streak, I think their run will come to an end at the Emirates when they face the second-best home defense in the league. 

Arsenal has a clean sheet in 40% of home games in all competitions and have conceded just five goals against bottom half of the table sides when playing at home.

Keeper, David Raya is the current leader in the race for the Premier League Golden Glove award this season with 10 clean sheets.

This impressive feat can partly be attributed to arguably the best defense in the league sitting in front of him. Arsenal has an impressive 24.51 xG against them all season (6.49 less than second placed Man City) and have conceded just 23 goals all season. Their xG against them at home is 11.17 and they have conceded 12. 

They face the fifth worst attacking side based on xG as Luton have just 16.85 xG on the road.

Off the back of a defensive masterclass against Man City, Arsenal’s defense will feel invincible after stopping the likes of Haaland, Foden, De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva. 

I think they will have no problem stopping this injury riddled Luton side from finding the net and I can’t find any reason why Luton might be the fifth side to stop Arsenal winning at home this season.

Man City vs Aston Villa – Phil Foden Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Manchester City, the reigning champions, are set to host Aston Villa in a crucial Premier League showdown. City, coming off a goalless draw with Arsenal, are eager to secure a win to keep their title hopes alive. Villa, fresh from a convincing 2-0 win over Wolverhampton, are aiming to solidify their position for a Champions League spot. This match is a pivotal moment in both teams’ seasons.

This is a must-win game for Manchester City if they want to have the best chance of chasing league leaders Liverpool with only nine games left. 

The offense has to respond after failing to score against Arsenal last game and scoring one against Liverpool the game before. 

Phil Foden, one of their major players up front this season, made little impact in these games, taking only three shots.

However, these two teams had the best and second-best defensive records in the League this season, and while Villa's defense is strong, it doesn't quite compare to Liverpool or Arsenal.

Villa have conceded the 9th most goals in the last six games in the Premier League.

Prior to the previous two games, Phil Foden had averaged five shots per game over the previous eight games and scored six goals. 

He averages 1.36 shots on target per 90 minutes this season.

Man City will undoubtedly come out to win this game at home, and I expect them to regain the form they had before the last two difficult fixtures. We should also see Foden return to the center of the action and get considerably more chances than he has in these games.