Football Accumulator Tips: Saturday 10/1 FavFour backs Roma to win

Aston Villa vs Brentford – Aston Villa to Win

Aston Villa aims to bounce back from a defeat against Manchester City as they host Brentford this Saturday. A win could secure their first league double over Brentford in 77 years. Brentford, struggling with a winless streak, faces a tough challenge as they’ve never won a league fixture at Villa Park.  

Brentford seek points as they look to move further from the drop zone while Villa continue to push for Champions League Qualification next year.

Brentford are the fifth worst away side in the Premier League, and they are taking on the fourth best home side. 

They are without a win in seven games and have lost 10 of their last 11 away games in all competitions.

I expect Thomas Frank to set up defensively as he did against Brighton in their recent 0-0 draw which saw the De Zerbi’s side dominate with almost double their oppositions touches, 19 more shots and 35% of the action taking place in Brentford’s third of the pitch.

Thomas Frank’s side were lucky to get away with a draw thanks to poor finishing from Brighton’s offense but they now face one of the most clinical sides in the league with the fifth most goals (63) and a side that average 2.5 goals per home game. 

Villa have a positive xG difference of 1.65 which means they have been finishing the chances they are expected to. Brentford’s previous opposition, Brighton has a negative xG difference of -4.75. 

I can’t see Brentford getting a result at a ground they have historically struggled at. They have been too weak defensively recently and face one the leagues best attacks. If they perform like they did against Brighton recently, Villa will be sure they won’t make the same mistake as Brighton and will take their chances.

Bournemouth vs Luton – Bournemouth to Win

This Saturday Luton Town, currently in a tough spot in the Premier League, take on a Bournemouth team that’s been on a roll. After a hard-fought game against Arsenal, Luton are eager to turn things around. Bournemouth, fresh from their win against Crystal Palace, are looking to extend their winning streak. It’s a match that promises plenty of action, especially considering Bournemouth’s stunning 4-3 comeback last time they faced Luton. 

Despite Luton putting on a valiant display against Arsenal and makings things hard for a Gunners attack that has been scoring freely recently, the Hatters have failed to pick up three points from a game in 11 fixtures.

Luton haven’t struggled to find the net though, scoring in 18 consecutive fixtures before the Arsenal game and averaging two goals a game in their last five. 

However, they have struggled to keep the ball out of their own goal, they are without a clean sheet in their last five games at home and have conceded 15 goals in the process.

The hatters remain in an injury crisis for this fixture against Bournemouth as they are without four first team defenders and no fewer than 11 players in total.

Unfortunately for them, they face a Bournemouth side with wind in their sails with three wins in their last three games and without defeat in their last five.

Bournemouth haven’t struggled to find the net recently either, scoring an average of 2.2 goals a game in their last 5. 

The Cherries also haven’t struggled to make chances on the road this season, they have the sixth best away xG in the league.

The last fixture ended in a 4-3 win for Bournemouth, and I expect this game to be high scoring as well. However, Bournemouth come into this game in far better form than the last and will be sure to prevent a repeat of the early goals they conceded.

An injury ridden Luton defense won’t be able to keep out an in-form Bournemouth and I don’t think Bournemouth will make the same mistakes they did last time. They will be better prepared for the attacking threat that Luton possess and should be able to outscore this Luton side.

Lens vs Le Havre – Lens to Win 

Defeat to Nice and Lille in their last two games have dented Lens hopes of qualifying for the Champions League. They have to respond with a victory at home on Saturday to have a chance at competing in the competition next season.

This is the perfect opportunity to do so as they face relegation candidates Le Havre who are just one point above the drop zone. 

Le Havre are struggling to find points recently with just one win in their last eight games.

This might be attributed to their inability to find the net, as they have scored just four goals in these games. 

Le Havre also gave the worst xG on the road in the league with just 10 expected goals away from home all season and have the second worst away points record in the league.

Lens don’t have the strongest defence at the moment, they have conceded nine goals in their last six league games, but they have kept clean sheets in two of those six games and these games have included 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th placed sides in the league.

This is Lens first meeting with a team in the lower half of the standings in six league games. They are the better side on paper and should have no trouble winning this one as they take on a team that suffers away from home and struggles to find the net on a regular basis. 

Roma vs Lazio – Roma to Win

Roma and Lazio face off in the 183rd Derby della Capitale this Saturday. With new managers at the helm, both teams are eyeing European qualification. Roma, under club legend Daniele De Rossi, are on a six-match unbeaten streak in Serie A. Lazio, under Igor Tudor, aim to extend their unbeaten run in the derby to five matches. 

Roma have looked like a different side under Danielle De Rossi and have been formidable in the Serie A lately. They are unbeaten in nine of their last 10 games in all competitions and have seven wins in those fixtures. 

Their home form is also incredibly impressive as they have failed to win at the Stadio Olimpico just five times this season, losing only twice. It is fair to say they have made their home ground a fortress this year.

Roma have also been scoring freely recently, racking up 15 goals in their last six home games in all competitions.

Their opposition head to the in-form home sides fortress in erratic form. Lazio have five losses in their seven fixtures and have lost three of their last four away games which does not fair well heading into a game against one of the best home sides in the league.

The Eagles have failed to win at the Stadio Olimpico in five of their last six visits and have lost four times.

I think the home advantage and form of Roma compared to Lazio will be the difference in this game, Roma should win.