20:00 Tuesday

Arsenal vs Chelsea – Arsenal to Win

Arsenal welcome Chelsea to the Emirates for this Premier League clash. Chelsea are fresh of the back of a FA Cup semi final defeat and Arsenal cannot afford to lose as they attempt to push for the league title.

Chelsea’s attack showed their wastefulness against Man City when losing 1-0 despite finishing with a higher xG than their opponents (1.29).

This seems to have been the story of their season as they currently have an xG difference of -7.78 (excluding penalties) which is down there with the worst in the league.

They face the leagues best defence today, Arsenal have conceded just 26 goals all season and have by far the lowest xG against them which means they not only concede the least but allow the least chances.

They have just 12 xG against them at home in 17 games. I think if Chelsea are to get any chances against this defensively sound Arsenal side their wastefulness will cost them dearly.

On top of that, Chelsea are not the most defensively sound side, they have conceded 10 in their last six games and not including their 6-0 win over Everton, their results have been shaky with draws against Sheffield and Burnley and a fortunate late win over Man United.

The league’s top scorers with the home crowd behind them, should get the better of this average defence while Chelsea will find it hard to find chances and if they do their wastefulness could cost them.

20:00 Tuesday

Lazio vs Juventus – Lazio to Win

Lazio take on Juventus for the second leg of this Copa Italia semi-final tie. This will be the third time these two sides have met in the last month. Lazio will look to overturn a two-goal deficit at their home ground, the Stadio Olimpico.

Lazio let their home record slip recent when they went on a three-game losing streak at the Stadio Olimpico, however before that they had only lost once in 16 games there. They have since got back on track with two wins at home (one against today’s opponents).

Having the home crowd behind them today should be an advantage, especially considering Juventus have not won on the road in six games. Lazio have also won the last two home meetings against Juventus. They will be confident going into this clash.

With Juventus defending a two goal lead they won’t have their focus on attacking. They aren’t the most prolific goal scorers away from home this season with the seventh least goals on the road in the Serie A in the last six games (five in their last six). 

Juventus should lean on their defence to see this game out and with a two-goal cushion they can afford to lose this game by one goal. 

I think Lazio will win this on the day as Juventus look to see this tie out. 

20:00 Tuesday

Leicester vs Southampton – Both Teams to Score

This is a massive fixture for both sides as they push for automatic promotion with just three games remaining in the league. 

Leicester have had a fantastic season and lead the Championship table; however, they have been somewhat shaky in the run-in to the end of season, losing seven of their last 13 games in all competitions.

They have been less that solid at the back in these games, conceding in their last eight games.

They face the leagues second top scorers and the most prolific scorers in the league in the last six games with 11 goals.

Southampton should find the net today.

Southampton have also been weak at the back recently. They have conceded 11 goals away from home in their last six games. 

Leicester have been strong going forward with 11 goals in their last six home games. They are also the third top scorers in the league.

This will be a game that is all about the two sides attacks. Both sides defenses have been in poor form and I can’t see either of these sides leaving this game without a goal considering its implications for both of their seasons.