20:00 Wednesday

Over 2.5 Goals

Olympiakos are the underdogs coming into this one but their semi-final triumph over Aston Villa showed they have the attacking quality to cause problems. The Greek side scored six goals across both matches to end Unai Emery’s hopes of lifting another European trophy.

Fiorentina have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 matches. Those games have seen an average of 3.5 goals, two for Vincenzo Italiano’s side and 1.5 for the opposition. There have been three goals or more in seven of their last eight.

Olympiakos To Win

I’m siding with the underdogs here. They are bidding to become the first-ever Greek side to lift a European. Olympiakos will also be boosted by the fact that this game is taking place in their home city of Athens.

Jose Luis Mendilibar won the Europa League as Sevilla boss in 2023. His side upset the odds in that campaign and this Olympiacos team can do the same. Winning the trophy would secure him a place in the club’s history.

Fiorentina have looked defensively frail of late. They are conceding an average of 1.88 goals per game in their last eight matches. Italiano’s side edged past an unfancied Cagliari 3-2 in their last game so it’s hard to be enticed by Fiorentina’s short price here. 

Ayoub El Kaabi To Score

Ayoub El Kaabi has been exceptional for Olympiakos this season. His exploits in Europe have helped guide his team to the final of the Europa Conference League and I expect him to deliver a strong performance in the final.

El Kaabi scored three goals in six matches in the Europa League group stages but it’s in the Conference League where he has been truly clinical. 

The Moroccan has scored 10 goals in eight appearances in this tournament. His underlying statistics also showcase just how ruthless he can be in front of goal. He is averaging just 4.23 touches per 90 minutes in the opposition box. 

His non-penalty xG is 0.57 per 90 minutes, which is still very high. However, he has managed to outperform this by averaging exactly one non-penalty goal per 90 minutes.

The striker scored five of his team’s six goals in the semi-finals against Aston Villa. Just once of those came from the spot. 

Those were his only five shots on target in the whole tie so backing him to score makes more sense than betting on shots on target here.

Over 1.5 Fouls for Quini

Fiorentina have forced the third most fouls per game in the Europa Conference League this season with an average of 14.92. The average for a team in each match of this competition is just 11.98 so we are selecting an Olympiakos player for fouls here.

Quini looks set to start at left-back for the Greek side here. He made three fouls and was booked in the 2-0 win over Aston Villa in the second leg of their semi-final clash. The defender has now been booked in his last four matches.

He came off the bench for the last 15 minutes and made four fouls in his last game against Panathinaikos but is in several of the predicted starting elevens for this clash.